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Sistemski rizik je problem koji je prije izbijanja globalne financijske krize (2007.-2009.) bio uvelike podcijenjen. Navedena kriza je probudila interes za proučavanjem koncepta sistemskog rizika u financijskoj literaturi, dok je pandemija novog koronavirusa pokazala da je sistemski rizik itekako još uvijek aktualan problem u globaliziranom svijetu. Dok je posljednja globalna financijska kriza potvrdila da se sistemski rizik može javiti endogeno, kriza uzrokovana pandemijom je pokazala da sistemski rizik može proizlaziti i iz poremećaja u realnoj ekonomiji. Kako bi se aktualizirala problematika sistemskog rizika, u radu se sintetiziraju brojne teorijske spoznaje o sistemskom riziku te se utvrđuju glavni izvori rizika za stabilnost hrvatskog bankovnog sustava u vremenu izbijanja pandemije novog koronavirusa. U Republici Hrvatskoj glavni rizici za stabilnost bankarskog sektora mogu proizlaziti iz nepovoljnih turističkih kretanja, prezaduženosti sektora kućanstva i države, dok povećana razina koncentracije hrvatskog bankarskog sektora može pridonijeti materijalizaciji i zaraznom širenju sistemskog rizika među bankama, ali i na gospodarstvo u cjelini. Systemic risk is a problem that was greatly underestimated before the outbreak of the global financial crisis (2007-2009). This crisis has rekindled the interest in studying the concept of systemic risk in the financial literature, while the new coronavirus pandemic has shown that systemic risk is still a very prominent problem in a globalized world. While the recent global financial crisis confirmed that systemic risk can occur endogenously, the new crisis caused by a pandemic has shown that systemic risk can also arise from disturbances in the real economy. In order to show the relevance of the issue of systemic risk, this paper synthesizes numerous theoretical knowledge about systemic risk and identifies the main sources of risk to the stability of the Croatian banking system at the time of the outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic. In the Republic of Croatia, the main risks to the stability of the banking sector may arise from unfavourable tourism trends, over-indebtedness of the household and government sector, while increased concentration of the Croatian banking sector may contribute to materialization and contagious spread of systemic risks among banks and the economy in its entirety. |
