DETERMINANTE KREDITNOG REJTINGA ZEMALJA EUROPSKE UNIJE : diplomski rad
| Autor: | Katavić, Mila |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Visković, Josip |
| Jazyk: | chorvatština |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
javni dug
unemployment determinante rejtinga fiskalni saldo SOCIAL SCIENCES. Economics. Finance annual inflation the EU country nezaposlenost članstvo EMU EU zemlje rast BDP-a fiscal balance the impact of variables the rating determinants membership of EMU GDP growth public debt DRUŠTVENE ZNANOSTI. Ekonomija. Financije sovereign credit rating suvereni kreditni rejting godišnja inflacija |
| Popis: | Ciljevi ovog rada mogu se podijeliti na teorijske i empirijske. Teorijski cilj istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje teorijske podloge relacije determinanti kreditnog rejtinga i kreditnog rejtinga zemalja EU. Utvrđivanje teorijske podloge je bitno kako bi se mogli interpretirati rezultati empirijskih istraživanja i dale smjernice za daljnja istraživanja. Glavni cilj ovog istraživanja je bio dokazati da li su glavne determinante kreditnog rejtinga zemalja EU: rast BDP-a, godišnja inflacija, fiskalni saldo, javni dug, nezaposlenost i članstvo EMU. Rezultati su pokazali da su potonje varijable značajne za suvereni kreditni rejting promatranih zemalja. Neke imaju pozitivan, a neke negativan utjecaj na rejting. U većini modela u kojima se pojavljuju rast BDP-a i članstvo u EMU imaju statistički značajan pozitivan utjecaj na kreditni rejting. Godišnja inflacija, javni dug i stopa nezaposlenosti imaju negativan utjecaj na kreditni rejting, dok fiskalni saldo od 7 modela u kojima se pokazuje statistički značajan, u 5 modela ima negativan utjecaj na kreditni rejting. S aspekta razvijenosti, više razvijene zemlje imaju viši kreditni rejting. Uzrok tome su promatrane determinante koje imaju jako dobre rezultate, te shodno tim i prikladnu ocjenu. S druge strane manje razvijene zemlje to nemaju ili nemaju sve pokazatelje tako dobre, te one sukladno tome imaju niži rejting. The objectives of this work can be divided into theoretical and empirical. The theoretical goal of the investigation is to determine the theoretical bases of relations determinants of credit ratings and the credit ratings of EU countries. Determining the theoretical background is essential in order to interpret the results of empirical research and provide guidance for further research. The main objective of this study was to prove that the main determinants of the credit ratings of EU countries are: GDP growth, annual inflation, fiscal balance, public debt, unemployment and EMU membership. The results showed that the latter variables are significant for sovereign credit rating of the observed countries. Some have positive and some negative impact on the rating. In most models which appear GDP growth and membership in the EMU had a statistically significant positive impact on the credit rating. Annual inflation, public debt and unemployment rates have a negative impact on the credit rating, while the fiscal balance of 7 models which shows statistically significant, in 5 models has a negative impact on the credit rating. In terms of development, more developed countries have a higher credit rating. This is due to the observed determinants which have very good results, and accordingly these and appropriate evaluation. While on the other less developed countries that do not have or do not have all that good indicators, and they accordingly have a lower rating. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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