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The paper studies theories of speculative attacks. Using a generation approach, we research the genesis and mechanisms in recent attacks. We find significant changes in structural characteristics of financial crises. The 1990s brought new insights in this respect. The differences in generation approaches suggest that in the world of high capital mobility a reliable model has to consider, besides fundamental factors, multiple equilibria and theself-fulfilling character of speculative attacks. The economic and social costs of the crises estimated in terms of lost output in the third generation require special focus of economic policy on the liberalisation process in the financial sector and financial opening of the economy. Članek obravnava teorije špekulativnih napadov. S pomočjo generacijskega pristopa avtorji raziskujejo genezo in mehanizme sodobnih napadov. Devetdeseta leta so prinesla v tem pogledu nova spoznanja. Pri tem ugotavljajo avtorji pomembne spremembe v strukturnih karakteristikah finančnih kriz. Razlike v generacijskih pristopih sugerirajo, da mora v razmerah visoke mobilnosti kapitala zanesljiv model upoštevati poleg osnovnih variabel tudi multipla ravnovesja in samoizpolnjujoč karakter špekulativnih napadov. Ekonomski in socialni stroški kriz, merjeni z izgubo outputa v tretji generaciji kriz, zahtevajo posebno pozornost ekonomske politike pri liberalizaciji finančnega sektorja in finančnem odpiranju gospodarstva. |
