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Patterns of social interaction shape the spread of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. Empirically, we observe clear patterns regarding age and social settings in seroprevalence over time. Therefore, understanding social contact patterns in society is an essential aspect for developing models that accurately describe the transmission dynamic of such a pathogen. Various research groups have provided synthetic age-resolved contact matrices that describe these interactions in the same four different contexts (school, workplace, household, and other locations) for different countries. Our primary research question is – how different sets of contact matrices can be compared quantitatively in a way relevant for their application in epidemiology. Here, we selected the matrices provided in two extensively and often cited publications (Fumanelli et al., Computational Biology 2012 and Jit et al., Computational Biology 2017) to review and compare the contacts pattern in Swiss society for different ages and contexts. Besides methodological differences in the determination of the matrices, the most prominent difference between the two sets is given by the resolution with respect to age groups (Fumanelli’s resolution is 1yt, Jit’s resolution is 5yrs). To properly compare both matrices, an aggregation method is first proposed to achieve the same dimensionality for both. We then discuss in detail different methods and measures for their comparison. Thereby, mathematical soundness and epidemiological sensibility must be considered equally. The consequences and interpretation of the differences between the two sets of matrices are analyzed by introducing them into a simple SIR – model. Using artificial test populations that highlight selected demographic key features, specific aspects of the dynamics are evaluated and related to the measure of difference. This analyses of static differences of contact matrices in relation to differences in the dynamic behavior also helps to understand what type of differences are relevant and thereby provide guidance for field studies determining contact structures. |
