Razvoj metode za analizo prepustnosti delovnih zapor na avtocestnem omrežju
| Autor: | Trček, Luka |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Žura, Marijan |
| Jazyk: | slovinština |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
maximum likelihood method
analiza preživetja capacity queue discharge rate deterministic approach work zone delovna zapora survival analysis stohastičen pristop stochastic approach regresija udc:519.246.8:656.11(043.3) metoda največjega verjetja regression determinističen pristop prepustnost v času zastoja kapaciteta |
| Popis: | Zaradi staranja avtocestnega omrežja bomo v prihodnosti priča vse bolj obsežnim vzdrževalnim delom in pogostejšim avtocestnim zaporam. Delovna zapora predstavlja ozko grlo, vpliva na dogajanje v prometnem toku in zato poslabša nivo usluge avtocestnega odseka. Pri nas trenutno ni analitičnega modela, s katerim bi lahko napovedali kako določen tip zapore vpliva na nivo usluge avtocestnega odseka. V delu smo zato obravnavali različne metode za ocenjevanje prepustnosti delovnih zapor na avtocestah. Pridobili smo podatke o prometnih obremenitvah, podatke o lokacijah avtomatskih števnih mest in podatke o različnih delovnih zaporah, ki so se v daljšem obdobju izvajale na našem avtocestnem omrežju. Na podlagi pridobljenih podatkov smo z različnimi metodami izpeljali modele za oceno prepustnosti zapor. Poudarek naloge je tako na predstavitvi različnih metod in njihovi medsebojni primerjavi kot na analizi različnih dejavnikov, ki vplivajo na prepustnost zapore. Pri tem smo ugotovili, kako na prepustnost zapore vpliva prisotnost tovornih vozil, vzdolžni naklon ceste, različne zožitve in preusmeritve prometa. Za vsak preučevan tip zapore smo ocenili njihove prepustnosti ter vrednosti primerjali z modeli iz tujine. Uporabnost modelov smo prikazali na primeru napovedi gostote prometnega toka in verjetnosti pojava zastoja v času zapore. As Slovenian freeway infrastructure is aging, maintenance work, managed with appropriate work zones, is already more extensive and will represent even a bigger necessity in the future. Work zones can have a major effect on the traffic flow as they represent a bottleneck therefore the freeways operate at lower levels of service. Although it is known that work zones affect the freeway level of service, there is a lack of an appropriate model to quantify this effect depending on the work zone type on Slovenian freeway network. In the master thesis we are taking into consideration several methods for freeway work zone capacity determination that can be found in the literature. We started with collecting data about traffic counters locations with corresponding traffic volumes and various work zones that were present on Slovenian freeway network in prolonged time period. The collected data represent the basis for evaluation of different models for estimating work zone capacity. Demonstrating effectiveness of different existent methods on Slovenian freeway network, comparison among them and analysis of various factors, that affect the capacity, represent the core of the master thesis. We have studied the effect of heavy vehicles, longitudinal grade, lane narrowing and diversion of traffic on the work zone capacity. For each work zone type we have estimated the capacity and queue discharge rate and compared the values with models and corresponding capacity values, that were developed abroad, and proposed the most suitable model. The usage of the proposed model was also shown on an application example with predicted density values and probabilities of traffic breakdown in a work zone. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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