Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Autor: Moraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP], de Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra, Cecílio, Roberto Avelino, Mafia, Reginaldo Gonçalves, Moraes, Wanderson Bucker, Cosmi, Fernando Carrara, Valadares Junior, Ranolfo
Přispěvatelé: Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Center for Research and Technology
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scopus
Repositório Institucional da UNESP
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
instacron:UNESP
ISSN: 0100-5405
Popis: Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T16:58:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2014-01-01. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2021-07-15T14:33:11Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 S0100-54052014000200002.pdf: 485899 bytes, checksum: b464446c2c9cf540d79b4fca43886603 (MD5) Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 °C, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); ii) medium risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 °C and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease. Department of Plant Production, Plant-Health Protection Sector, College of Agronomical Science (FCA), UNESP-Univ Estadual Paulista, Caixa Postal 237, Botucatu, SP 18610-307 Department of Plant Production, Agricultural Science Center, Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES), 29500-000, Alegre, ES Department of Forestry, Agricultural Science Center, UFES, Alegre, ES Center for Research and Technology, FIBRIA S.A., 29197-900, Aracruz, ES Department of Plant Production, Plant-Health Protection Sector, College of Agronomical Science (FCA), UNESP-Univ Estadual Paulista, Caixa Postal 237, Botucatu, SP 18610-307
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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