The relationship between the risks levels and the budget deviations in software development projects

Autor: Oliveira, Paulo S??rgio da Cruz
Přispěvatelé: Mazieri, Marcos Rog??rio, Rabechini Junior, Roque, Russo, Ros??ria de F??tima Segger Macri, Vils, Leonardo, Santos, Andr?? Moraes dos
Jazyk: portugalština
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
Zdroj: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da Uninove
Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE)
instacron:UNINOVE
Popis: Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2019-07-10T17:36:41Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Paulo S??rgio da Cruz Oliveira.pdf: 3399077 bytes, checksum: 410263e0beedf04415372d57aef731e1 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2019-07-10T17:36:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paulo S??rgio da Cruz Oliveira.pdf: 3399077 bytes, checksum: 410263e0beedf04415372d57aef731e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-12-18 The monetary values invested in projects implementation are defined based on expected benefits. The ultimate generic benefit of a project is to add value to organizational processes. Budgetary deviations may be obstacles to the achievement of project benefits. Budgetary deviations can be reduced by using contingency reserves, however, the literature is inconclusive about ways to define and even size such contingency reserves. This may occur because budgetary deviations are due to the risks inherent to the uncertain environment in which the projects are inserted. To address these budget deviations, project managers constitute contingency reserves that are reserves of resources, especially financial resources, calculated in percentage terms of the total value of the project. In this way, it is relevant to understand the theories and practices that address the relationship between risks and budget deviations in projects and how these issues can be addressed. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to analyze the relationship between the risk levels and budgetary deviations in software development projects. For this, quantitative methods with hypothesis tests were applied through Chi-square statistical analysis. The sample consisted of convenience based on secondary data composed of 70 completed software development projects from 2012 to 2018. As a result, it was found that the duration, the type of the project and the innovation influence the project risk level. It was also verified that the level of risk influences the budget deviation, evidencing that the contingency reserve was calculated without considering the risk level. The main theoretical contribution is the understanding of some constructs that correlate with the level of risk and the discussion about the apparent progressive abandonment, over the last years, of the use of the risk level effectively in the project such as the definition of the contingency reserve. Some possible reasons are discussed. As a pratical contribution, this research confirms with empirical tests the relationship between risks and budget deviations as described in the literature, also, provides recommendations so that project stakeholders can make estimates with a higher level of accuracy reducing the system development software budget deviation. Os valores monet??rios investidos na implanta????o dos projetos s??o definidos com base em benef??cios esperados. O benef??cio gen??rico final de um projeto ?? adicionar valor aos processos organizacionais. Os desvios or??ament??rios podem ser obst??culos ao alcance dos benef??cios dos projetos. Desvios or??ament??rios podem ser reduzidos pelo uso das reservas de conting??ncia, no entanto, a literatura ?? inconclusiva sobre as formas de definir e at?? mesmo dimensionar tais reservas de conting??ncia. Isso pode ocorrer devido a tais desvios or??ament??rios serem decorrentes dos riscos, inerentes ao ambiente de incerteza no qual os projetos est??o inseridos. Para fazer frente a esses desvios or??ament??rios, os gerentes de projeto constituem as reservas de conting??ncia, que s??o reservas de recursos, especialmente financeiros, calculadas em termos percentuais do valor total do projeto. Desta forma, ?? relevante compreender as teorias e as pr??ticas que abordam a rela????o entre os riscos e os desvios or??ament??rios em projetos e a forma como estas quest??es podem ser endere??adas. O objetivo deste trabalho ??, portanto, examinar a rela????o entre os n??veis dos riscos e os desvios or??ament??rios em projetos de desenvolvimento de software. Para isso, foram aplicados m??todos quantitativos com testes de hip??teses atrav??s da an??lise estat??stica Chi-quadrado. A amostra foi constitu??da por conveni??ncia com base em dados secund??rios composta por 70 projetos de desenvolvimento de software conclu??dos entre os anos de 2012 e 2018. Como resultado, apurou-se que a dura????o, o tipo do projeto e a inova????o influenciam no n??vel de risco do projeto. Verificou-se ainda que o n??vel de risco, por sua vez, influencia no desvio or??ament??rio, evidenciando que a reserva de conting??ncia foi calculada sem considerar o n??vel de risco. Como contribui????o te??rica principal destaca-se a compreens??o de alguns construtos que se correlacionam com o n??vel de risco e a discuss??o sobre o aparente abandono progressivo, ao longo dos ??ltimos anos, do uso do n??vel de risco de forma efetiva nas demais etapas do projeto como, por exemplo, na defini????o da reserva de conting??ncia. Alguns poss??veis motivos s??o discutidos. Como contribui????o pr??tica, essa pesquisa confirma com testes emp??ricos a rela????o entre os riscos e os desvios or??ament??rios que ?? descrita na literatura, assim como fornece recomenda????es para que os interessados nos projetos possam efetuar estimativas com maior n??vel de precis??o, reduzindo-se os desvios or??ament??rios em projetos de desenvolvimento de software.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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