Revisitando a curva de Phillips e a Regra de Taylor para a economia brasileira

Autor: Fernandes, Afonso Fonseca
Přispěvatelé: Divino, Jos?? Angelo
Jazyk: portugalština
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
Zdroj: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UCB
Universidade Católica de Brasília (UCB)
instacron:UCB
Popis: Submitted by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2019-05-17T14:10:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AfonsoFonsecaFernandesTese2018.pdf: 1427446 bytes, checksum: cc37713baa23a18e3492e57c1ee71447 (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2019-05-17T14:10:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AfonsoFonsecaFernandesTese2018.pdf: 1427446 bytes, checksum: cc37713baa23a18e3492e57c1ee71447 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2019-05-17T14:10:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AfonsoFonsecaFernandesTese2018.pdf: 1427446 bytes, checksum: cc37713baa23a18e3492e57c1ee71447 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-11-28 This paper has two main objectives: to estimate a new basic Phillips curve for the Brazilian economy and the Taylor rule for Brazilian monetary policy. It is divided into two chapters: Chapter 1, entitled "Revisiting the Phillips Curve for Brazil," and Chapter 2, "Revisiting the Taylor Rule for Brazil." The period under investigation comprises from 2001: 12 to 2016: 05 and is characterized by the adoption of monetary regime of inflation targets by the Central Bank from 1999, for both objectives were used models through the OLS and GMM methods. For the first objective, we estimated the Phillips curve with the inclusion of variables not yet contemplated by the Brazilian economy, which are: compulsory deposit and public debt / GDP. The results show that the compulsory deposit variable had a low effect on inflation and could be used by the Brazilian Central Bank as an instrument of financial stability, but not as a price control instrument, and public debt / GDP was statistically insignificant in the models, indicating that the contracting or payment of public debt by the government was not an effective instrument to control inflation in the analyzed period. Regarding the second objective, the unpublished variable is real estate financing, and the result suggests that monetary policy acted procyclically at the activity level in the real estate sector during the analyzed period and the presence of expected inflation confirms forward-looking behavior adopted by economic agents in the same period. Este trabalho tem dois objetivos principais: estimar uma nova curva de Phillips b??sica para a economia brasileira e a regra de Taylor para a pol??tica monet??ria do Brasil. Encontra-se dividido em dois cap??tulos: o cap??tulo 1, intitulado como ???Revisitando a curva de Phillips para o Brasil??? e o cap??tulo 2, ???Revisitando a Regra de Taylor para o Brasil???. O per??odo investigado compreende de 2001:12 a 2016:05 e ?? caracterizado pela ado????o do regime monet??rio de metas de infla????o pelo Banco Central a partir de 1999, para ambos os objetivos foram utilizados modelos atrav??s dos m??todos OLS e GMM. Para o primeiro objetivo foi estimada a curva de Phillips com inclus??o de vari??veis ainda n??o contemplada pela economia brasileira, que s??o: dep??sito compuls??rio e d??vida p??blica/PIB. Os resultados evidenciam que a vari??vel dep??sito compuls??rio apresentou baixo efeito sobre a infla????o, podendo ser utilizada pelo Banco Central do Brasil como instrumento de estabilidade financeira, mas n??o como instrumento de controle de pre??os, e a d??vida p??blica/PIB apresentou-se estatisticamente n??o significativa nos modelos, indicando que a contrata????o ou pagamento de d??vida p??blica pelo governo n??o foi um instrumento eficaz de controle da infla????o no per??odo analisado. Com rela????o ao segundo objetivo, a vari??vel in??dita ?? o financiamento imobili??rio e o resultado sugere que a pol??tica monet??ria agiu de maneira pr??-c??clica ao n??vel de atividade no setor imobili??rio durante o per??odo analisado e a presen??a da infla????o esperada confirma o comportamento forward-looking adotado pelos agentes econ??micos no mesmo per??odo.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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