Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought

Autor: POWELL, T. I., GALBRAITH, D. R., CHRISTOFFERSEN, B. O., HARPER, A., IMBUZEIRO, H. M. A., ROWLAND, L., ALMEIDA, S., BRANDO, P. M., COSTA, A. C. L. da, COSTA, M. H., LEVINE, N. M., MALHI, Y., SALESKA, S. R., SOTTA, E., WILLIAMS, M., MEIR, P., MOORCROFT, P. R.
Přispěvatelé: Thomas L. Powell, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA, Patrick Meir, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK, Paul R. Moorcroft, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA., Paulo M. Brando, Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, CEP 71503-505, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Naomi M. Levine, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA, David R. Galbraith, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK, Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA, Anna Harper, College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA, Antonio Carlos Lola da Costa, Centro de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Para, Belem, CEP 66017-970, Para, Brazil, Hewlley M. A. Imbuzeiro, Grupo de Pesquisas em Interação Atmosfera-Biosfera, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Vicosa, CEP 36570-000, Minas Gerias, Brazil, Marcos Heil Costa, Grupo de Pesquisas em Interac~ao Atmosfera-Biosfera, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Vicosa, CEP 36570-000, Minas Gerias, Brazil, Samuel Almeida, Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Belem, CEP 66077-530, Para, Brazil, Yadvinder Malhi, Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK, Scott R. Saleska, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA, ELENEIDE DOFF SOTTA, CPAF-AP, Lucy Rowland, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK, Mathew Williams, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2013
Předmět:
Zdroj: Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA-Alice)
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa)
instacron:EMBRAPA
Popis: Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil?Plant?Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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