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Introduction. In recent years there was a need of new theoretic and methodical approach of forecasting and updating of passenger cars. However it is necessary to develop the new principles of forecasting of volumes of passenger traffic for the solution of this question. The purpose. Main objective of article is development of scientific approach to forecasting of volumes of passenger traffic for prospect taking into account influence of various factors. Methods and Results. There are four main factors which affect the volume of traffic. t is population, level of its income, change of speed and quality of passenger traffic, size of tariffs for transportation. Change research of these factors made using different methods of forecasting. Such as a method of least squares, a method of exponential smoothing series, extrapolation method. STATISTICA is used for establishment of dependence of volume of passenger traffic from the specified factors. Conclusions. Use of the created methodical approach will allow to consider influence of all factors as much as possible. It will allow is accepted optimum decisions for updating of a rolling stock. |
