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This capstone project studied the mission utility of using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems to accomplish the over-the-horizon mission by modeling a variety of UAV capabilities and evaluating their contribution. An Excel probabilistic model of the mission was created to determine the optimized weapon loadout and swarm configuration, which assumed the electronic countermeasures (ECM) UAV to have the highest probability of enemy engagement due to its lead formation position and large radar signature. An ExtendSim simulation added a time element to the study. Both the model and simulation revealed that a maximum air-to-air and strike weapon loadout, which is four weapons for each role, yields the highest probability of success at the lowest probability of a UAV casualty. A maximum air-to-air and strike loadout was found to produce success and UAV casualty probabilities of 98 and 3 percent, respectively. A comparative cost analysis assessed the financial viability of substituting UAVs for manned platforms. The analysis found the unit and per-flight hour cost, for all UAV platforms except those that fulfill the ECM role, to be less than the cost for manned counterparts. However, the use of the ECM UAV eliminates the potential for a flight crewmember casualty. http://archive.org/details/astudyofhowunman1094564868 Civilian, Department of the Navy Civilian, Department of the Navy Civilian, Department of the Navy Civilian, Department of the Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. |
