THE INFLUENCE OF ENEMIES AND FRIENDS: EXPLAINING U.S. POLICY CHANGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Autor: Croghan, Sean C.
Přispěvatelé: Glosny, Michael A., Malley, Michael S., National Security Affairs (NSA)
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Popis: This thesis examines the drivers behind two significant U.S. policy changes regarding geopolitical issues in the South China Sea. The first policy change was the gradual shift from neutrality to an anti-China stance on the various territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea. The second change was the U.S. announcement that it would support the Philippines’ South China Sea interests under the U.S.–Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. I examine two hypotheses for these policy shifts: first, that the changes occurred from the rise of China as a result of shifting balance of power and assertiveness; and second, that the United States was influenced by regional allies and partners to take a stronger stance on these issues. The evidence shows that the U.S. policy change on sovereignty was driven by a combination of a balance-of-power shift as well as several belligerent Chinese activities in the South China Sea starting in the beginning of 2020. The U.S. decision to clarify the bounds of its defense treaty with the Philippines was driven by a combination of a balance-of-power shift and the behavior of the Philippine government. Moving forward, the United States must show a firm commitment to upholding these new positions while simultaneously messaging its commitment to regional peace and global stability. Outstanding Thesis Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Databáze: OpenAIRE