| Popis: |
Background and Purpose: The modern environment requires that organizations (profit and non-profit) continually harmonize their organizational models with changes in their respective environments and with their own visions and strategies for further development. The organizational structure of Emergency Medical Services (hereinafter EMS) is currently a very topical issue in Slovenia, given that a project to establish a new organization of EMS is currently underway at the national level. By examining the case of one region in Slovenia, this article presents an analysis of factors that impact on the number and types of EMS activities and depicts a forecast of future trends for the requirement of EMS. The analysis presents the initial phase of a strategic planning process for the mentioned activity and consequently, a starting point for the formation of an organizational EMS model. Methodology: This article presents an analysis of factors that impact on the formulation of an EMS model on the basis of research carried out for one geographical region of Slovenia. For the previous period, data was collected from 2002 to 2014. The software tool used for the analysis was STATA 13.0. For the purpose of forecasting a five-year period trend we used statistical package RStudio and Hyndman’s Forecast package given that this package contains algorithms for forecasting univariate time series including exponential smoothing using automated spatial models and ARIMA modelling. Results: The research has confirmed a correlation between social/environmental factors and the rate of increase in the demand for EMS. A population’s age structure has been identified as the key social factor that increases the need for EMS. On the basis of this finding, this article presents a model for forecasting growth trends in the scope of EMS activities. Conclusion: The research study has identified some important elements that are imperative to take into consideration when formulating an EMS network at the prehospital level. Population ageing has emerged as a key social factor. In the accordance with forecasted trends, an increase in the burden placed on EMS activities may also be anticipated in the future. Uvod in namen: Sodobno okolje zahteva od organizacij (tako profitnih kot neprofitnih) nenehno usklajevanje modela organiziranosti s spremembami v okolju ter lastnim videnjem in strategijo nadaljnjega razvoja. Organiziranost nujne medicinske pomoči (NMP) je v tem trenutku v Sloveniji izredno aktualna tema, saj na nacionalni ravni teče projekt, katerega namen je vzpostavitev nove organiziranosti te službe. V članku bomo prikazali analizo vpliva dejavnikov okolja na področju števila in vrste obravnav v službi NMP ter prikazali napoved trendov za to dejavnost, in sicer na primeru ene od regij v Sloveniji. To predstavlja začetno fazo procesa strateškega načrtovanja omenjene dejavnosti in s tem izhodišče za oblikovanje organizacijskega modela te službe. Metode: V članku je prikazana analiza dejavnikov okolja, ki vplivajo na oblikovanje organizacijskega modela NMP, kar bo opravljeno na primeru ene geografske regije v Sloveniji. Uporabljeni podatki obsegajo časovno obdobje od leta 2002 do 2014. Pri analizi je bilo uporabljeno programsko orodje STATA 13.0. Za namen napovedovanja trenda petletnega obdobja smo uporabili statistični paket RStudio in knjižnico Forecast avtorja Hyndmana, ker knjižnica vsebuje algoritme za napoved univariatnih časovnih vrst vključno z eksponentnim glajenjem s pomočjo prostorskih modelov in avtomatizirano ARIMA modeliranje. Rezultati: Z raziskavo smo potrdili zvezo med dejavniki okolja in stopnjo naraščanja potreb po storitvah službe NMP. Kot ključni dejavnik okolja, ki povečuje potrebo po storitvah NMP, je bila potrjena starostna struktura prebivalstva. Na tej osnovi smo oblikovali model predvidevanja rasti po obsegu dejavnosti NMP. Zaključek: V raziskavi so bili ugotovljeni nekateri pomembni elementi, ki jih je neobhodno potrebno upoštevati pri formiranju mreže službe NMP na predbolnišnični ravni. Staranje prebivalstva se je izkazalo kot ključni dejavnik okolja. Skladno z napovedjo trendov je tudi za prihodnost mogoče pričakovati povečanje obremenitev na področju dejavnosti NMP. |
