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Namen prispevka: Cilj prispevka je pokazati razliko med oceno ogroženosti in oceno tveganj ter razviti predlog modela izdelave teh ocen za področje obveščevalno-varnostne dejavnosti v Republiki Sloveniji in hkrati spodbuditi praktike k uporabi enotne metodologije in terminologije na tem področju. Metode: Prispevek je strokovne narave in temelji na analizi procesa izdelave ocen ogroženosti in ocen tveganj za področje obveščevalno-varnostnih dejavnosti. Ugotovitve: Pri obravnavani tematiki obstajajo nekatere nejasnosti, ki se nanašajo na trenutno uporabo terminov grožnja in tveganje, ter posledično ocene ogroženosti in ocene tveganj. Avtor izhaja iz ideje, da so ocene ogroženosti del ocene tveganj, ki poleg ogroženosti vsebuje še pomembnost in ranljivost tarče. Nadalje je opredeljena terminologija, predstavljene pa so tudi nekatere hevristične rešitve ter predlog modela izdelave ocene ogroženosti in ocene tveganj primernih za področje obveščevalno-varnostne dejavnosti v Republiki Sloveniji. Obveščevalno-varnostna dejavnost se odvija v kompleksnem okolju z visoko stopnjo negotovosti, kjer je zaželena preprostejša in bolj prilagodljiva metodologija. Avtor priporoča uporabo hevristike, kar pri oceni ogroženosti pomeni, da več, kot je potrjenih indikatorjev, večja je verjetnost uresničitve grožnje, pri oceni tveganj pa, da se tveganje poviša ob povečani ogroženosti, ranljivosti ter pomembnosti tarče, in obratno. Praktična uporabnostin pomembnost prispevka: Prispevek se ukvarja z izdelavo ocen ogroženosti in ocen tveganj, z namenom poskusa poenotenja procesov izdelave in terminologije ter razumevanja omenjenih ocen za področje obveščevalno-varnostne dejavnosti. Purpose: The aim of the paper is to point out the differences between threat assessment and risk assessment, and to develop a proposal for an assessment model for intelligence and security purposes in the Republic of Slovenia. The purpose is also to encourage practitioners to use common methodology and terminology in this field. Design/Methods/Approach: The paper is of a professional nature and it is based on analysis of the process of threat assessment and risk assessment that is developed for intelligence and security area. Findings: The paper points out some confusing aspects regarding current usage of the term threat and risk, and consequently threat assessments and risk assessments. The paper is based on the idea that the threat assessment is a part of a risk assessment that additionally to the threat includes also the importance and vulnerability of the targets. The terminology is also defined, some heuristic solutions are put forward, and a proposal of threat and risk assessment model suitable for intelligence and security purposes in the Republic of Slovenia is made. Intelligence and security are taking place in a complex environment with high level of uncertainty. This fact demands the methodology that is simple and adaptable. The usage of heuristics is recommended, since more confirmed indicators by the threat assessment assume the increased likelihood of the achievement of the objectives set. In risk assessment the elevated risk depends on elevated threat, vulnerability and criticality of the target, and vice versa. Practical Implications and Value: The paper deals with threat and risk assessment, and it attempts to unify methodology, terminology and understandings of these assessments in the area of intelligence and security. |
