Reading between the lines: Using media to improve German inflation forecasts

Autor: Beckers, Benjamin, Kholodilin, Konstantin A., Ulbricht, Dirk
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Popis: In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated linguistic sentiment algorithms and business cycle news rated by experts perform best and are superior to simple word-count indicators and autoregressive forecasts.
Databáze: OpenAIRE