| Autor: |
Bodart, Vincent, Jean-François Carpantier |
| Přispěvatelé: |
UCL - SSH/LIDAM/IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales |
| Jazyk: |
angličtina |
| Rok vydání: |
2019 |
| Předmět: |
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| Popis: |
This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between currency collapses (i.e. large nominal depreciations or devaluations) and real output by paying a specific attention to commodity exporting countries. Using a dataset including 108 emerging and developing economies for the period 1970-2016, we document and estimate what happens to output growth during episodes of currency collapses for commodity-dependent and non commodity-dependent countries. One particular feature of our analysis is to control for war events. We find that currency crises occur more frequently in commodity-dependent countries (one crisis every 17 years versus 30 years for non commodity-dependent countries) and with a larger magnitude (median depreciation about 12 percent points larger for commodity-dependent countries). In both groups of countries, output growth declines in response to the currency collapse. It appears however that output growth starts to slowdown earlier in commodity-dependent countries while the impact is more persistent in non commodity-dependent countries. The magnitude of the output growth slowdown is very close between the two groups of countries. Finally, we find that the output growth-currency collapse relationship differs among commodity-dependent countries according to the category of their main exported commodity. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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