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PhD (Economics), North-West University, Mafikeng Campus Production technologies’ such as seeds have been essential to the measurement of climate change adaptive capacity. These have been used to measure this phenomenon at the production level of the agricultural value chain and provide inference on the sector’s ability to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. However, literature has been lacking in its characterization and analysis of the market’s responses to adaptation. Shifts in the seed market with particular reference to seed traits or qualities that promote sustainable production and the traits which promote the satisfaction of consumer demands (i.e. eco-efficient value) have not been done. This thesis takes advantage of the traceability of peach and nectarine seed (i.e. cultivars) in the value chain that permeates from production through to the retail level to measure the cultivar-trait trends, the enabling consumer values, economic impact and market opportunities driving and resulting from the dynamic balance between these two seemingly opposing dimensions of the product value. This study is done because cultivar quality is a critical area of this highly differentiated industry as it is a key in determining production profitability, production feasibility, market selection, market access, consumer acceptance, price levels, and market share in international trade. This thesis presents five manuscripts that unpack climate change adaptive capacity’s measurement, trade-offs and benefits in South Africa’s peach and nectarine fresh fruit trade. The first three manuscripts take a backward-looking approach that gives an account of past market changes. These provide an inventory of the cultivar characteristics that have been proliferated from 1956 to 2015 (Manuscript 1), measure the long-term trends of the types of product value that is provided through the dominant cultivar characteristics (Manuscript 2) and determine the benefits of the provision of eco-efficient value proposition on exports (in Manuscript 3). A long-term view is used here as climate change is interpreted as an enduring and slow-occurring market distortion whose effects require calculations on product quality that utilize time series that goes as far back in time as possible. Hence, these manuscripts use the longest time series of the data available (measured in 20 year segments). The last two manuscripts take a forward-looking approach that attempts to provide information on the current status and recommendations for future industry actions. This is done by identifying the cultivars that can be used to market the eco-efficient value proposition (Manuscript 4) and determining the markets which demand eco-efficient value proposition as a strategy to market growth (Manuscript 5). This analysis uses a relatively shorter time series which considers only the cultivars that are currently in use and excludes cultivars that have been discontinued in order to provide practical recommendations. Several research methods were used to analyze the market’s adaptive response to climate change. These included trend analysis, factor analysis, the gravity model, multivariate analysis and market growth-share analysis. The thesis utilized cultivar description data from various national and international cultivar repository data sources, export data from the national deciduous fruit producers’ organization, International Trade Centre’s trade statistics and Word Development Indicators. The study found that there was a general increase in the quality of cultivar traits which improved consumer satisfaction as well as sustainable production. However, an antagonist relationship was often observed between the cultivar traits that promoted the fruit quality with those that promoted sustainable production. Hence, trade-offs were observed between these two dimensions of product value. South African exports were found to be competitive in the global markets. However, the measured product value propositions did not contribute to the growth in export earnings. The study recommends that better communication of the superior export product’s eco-efficient value propositions be utilized to increase market growth in the two-thirds of the market where it provided competitive positioning. This should be particularly applied the US and Canada market where consumers have a preference for the cultivar varieties which rank high in the provision of this product value. In addition, the product’s ability to meet high-quality demands should be used as the main selling point demands in the Far East and Asian markets. Doctoral |
