OUTPUT GAP IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES USING UNOBSERVED COMPONENT METHOD: THE CASE OF CZECH REPUBLIC, ESTONIA AND KOSOVO

Autor: Kastrati, Albulenë, Pugh, Geoff, Toçi, Valentin
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Zdroj: Ekonomska misao i praksa
Volume 26
Issue 2
ISSN: 1848-963X
1330-1039
Popis: This paper investigates the concept and estimation of the output gap in transition economies, with special reference to the Czech Republic, Estonia and Kosovo. The motivation for investigating this phenomenon lies in the macroeconomic imbalances characterizing many transition economies, such as relatively sluggish growth, chronic balance of payments deficits and structural deficiencies, while continuously operating in the presence of relatively large underutilized resources. Given that the potential output and the corresponding output gap concepts are mainly discussed in the light of mainstream theories, the novelty of this paper stands in examining the relevance of the output gap in transition context. In order to reflect persistent underutilised resources as well as several structural breaks, the Unobserved Components model operationalized via the Kalman filter was employed as a the appropriate estimation method for transition economies. Another novelty of this study is the textual explanation of the technicalities underpinning the Kalman filtering procedure. While causing the output to fall below its potential, the results suggest that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) had a significant but transitory impact in the Czech Republic and Estonia cases. Due to relatively low external exposure and domestically funded banking system, the GFC caused no recession in Kosovo, but rather slowed the pace of growth mainly via the external sector channels and the uncertainties perceived by the banking sector. Last, the negative relationship between inflation and output gap was informative in the case of the Czech Republic and Estonia because it suggested a presence of inflation inertia in these countries, whereas the impact of the output gap on the inflation rate in Kosovo proved insignificant.
U radu se istražuje koncept i procjena proizvodnog jaza u tranzicijskim ekonomijama, s posebnim osvrtom na Češku, Estoniju i Kosovo. Motivacija za istraživanje ovog fenomena leži u makroekonomskim neravnotežama koje karakteriziraju brojne ekonomije u tranziciji, poput relativno slabog rasta, kroničnih deficita u platnoj bilanci i strukturnih nedostataka, a koje funkcioniraju s nedovoljno upotrijebljenim, ali relativno velikim sredstvima. Budući da se o konceptima potencijalne proizvodnje i odgovarajućem proizvodnom jazu većinom raspravlja u svjetlu glavnih teorija, novina je ovog rada ispitivanje relevantnosti proizvodnog jaza u kontekstu tranzicije. Kako bi se prikazala dugotrajno neupotrijebljena sredstva, kao i nekoliko strukturnih prekida, koristili smo se modelom nevidljive komponente primijenjenim na temelju Kalmanova filtra, odgovarajuće metode procjene za ekonomije u tranziciji. Još je jedna novost ovog istraživanja tekstualno objašnjenje tehničkih podloga Kalmanova filtriranja. Uzrokujući pad proizvodnje ispod potencijala, globalna ekonomska kriza imala je značajan, ali prolazan utjecaj na Češku i Estoniju. Zbog relativno slabe vanjske izloženosti i domaćeg financiranja bankarskog sustava, globalna ekonomska kriza nije izazvala recesiju na Kosovu, već je usporila tempo rasta kanalima vanjskog sektora i neizvjesnosti koju percipira bankarski sektor. Naposljetku, negativni odnos inflacije i proizvodnog jaza bio je informativan za Češku i Estoniju jer je ukazao na inertnost inflacije u tim zemljama, a utjecaj proizvodnog jaza na stopu inflacije na Kosovu pokazao se neznatnim.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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