CONNECTION BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, PUBLIC DEBT AND LONG-TERM BOND YIELDS

Autor: Levaj, Marin
Jazyk: chorvatština
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Ekonomski pregled
Volume 74
Issue 4
ISSN: 1848-9494
0424-7558
Popis: Pitanje održivosti javnog duga i njegovog potencijalnog utjecaja na ekonomski rast u budućnosti postaje sve važnije u kontekstu recesije izazvane pandemijom COVID-19 i snažnog rasta javnog duga koji je uslijedio u članicama Europske unije, uključujući i Hrvatsku. Cilj ovog rada je ispitati povezanost između javnog duga i stope rasta BDP-a, te njihov utjecaj na cijenu zaduživanja države. U radu se pomoću panel vektorskog autoregresijskog modela ispituje povezanost između varijabli stope rasta BDP-a, razine javnog duga u postotku BDP-a i cijene zaduživanja države (prinosa na desetogodišnje državne obveznice) u devet zemalja Nove Europe, nakon čega se procjenjuje VAR model s istim varijablama za Hrvatsku kako bi se ispitalo postoje li razlike u odnosu varijabli u Hrvatskoj. Rezultati procijenjenih modela ukazuju da stopa rasta BDP-a ima značajan negativan utjecaj na javni dug te da negativno utječe na dugoročne prinose na državne obveznice. S druge strane, javni dug nema značajan utjecaj na stopu rasta BDP-a u kratkom roku u osnovnom panel modelu i VAR modelu za Hrvatsku. Ipak, taj nalaz nije robustan jer u drugačijoj specifikaciji javni dug pozitivno utječe na stopu rasta BDP-a. Implikacija toga da rast javnog duga nema utjecaj na ekonomski rast ili da pozitivno utječe u kratkom roku je da snažan rast javnog duga zbog pandemije ne mora nužno negativno utjecati na stope ekonomskog rasta nakon izlaska iz recesije, ako ne dođe do normalizacije monetarne politike u kratkom roku. Stoga porast javnog duga uslijed recesije uzrokovane pandemijom nije problem za ekonomski rast u kratkom roku, no u srednjem je potrebno spustiti razinu javnog duga u BDP-u kako bi se Hrvatska lakše nosila s mogućim podizanjem kamatnih stopa od strane ECB-a u budućnosti i kako bi imala fiskalnog prostora za reakciju na sljedeću recesiju.
The issue of public debt sustainability and its potential impact on economic growth in the future is becoming increasingly important in the context of the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the strong public debt growth that followed in EU member states, including Croatia. The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between public debt and GDP growth rates, and their impact on the cost of government borrowing. The paper uses a panel vector autoregression model to examine the relationship between variables: GDP growth rate, public debt as a percentage of GDP and government borrowing cost (yield on ten-year government bonds) in nine countries of New Europe, after which a VAR model with the same variables is estimated for Croatia in order to examine whether there are differences in the relation between the variables in Croatia. The results of the estimated models indicate that the GDP growth rate has a significant negative impact on public debt as well as on long-term government bond yields. On the other hand, public debt does not have a significant impact on the GDP growth rate in the short run in the basic panel model and in the VAR model for Croatia. However, this finding is not robust, because in a different specification, public debt has a positive effect on the GDP growth rate. The implication that public debt growth has no impact on economic growth or has a positive impact in the short term is that strong public debt growth caused by the pandemic won’t necessarily have a negative impact on growth rates after the recession, if monetary policy is not normalized in the short run. Therefore, the increase in public debt amid the last recession is not a problem for economic growth in the short run, but in the medium term it is necessary to decrease the public debt to GDP ratio in order to free fiscal space, so that Croatia can react to possible interest rate hikes in the future and the next recession.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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