CAUSALITY ANALYSIS BETWEEN GDP, DEFENCE EXPENDITURE AND THE NUMBER OF ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL: THE CASE OF CROATIA

Autor: Tomislav Kovačević, Dražen Smiljanić
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Zdroj: Ekonomski pregled
Volume 68
Issue 4
ISSN: 1848-9494
0424-7558
Popis: Croatia’s national defence has experienced dramatic evolution since its creation, during the Homeland War in Croatia, at the beginning of the 1990s, and its subsequent transformation. Political and economic circumstances have the most significant impact on defence expenditure (DEFEXP) and the size of the armed forces. The aim of this research is to analyse a potential causality between DEFEXP and Croatia’s gross domestic product (GDP), as well as between DEFEXP and the number of Croatian Armed Forces personnel (AFP). The main data sources are from the World Bank and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The research is based on the use of the Granger causality test followed by procedures proposed by Toda and Yammamoto (1995) and the impulse response function with data from 1995 to 2014. The results show that there is no short-run or long-run causality between GDP and DEFEXP. The results obtained show one-way causality from DEFEXP to AFP, with AFP responding to shock from DEFEXP after three years.
Oružane snage Republike Hrvatske prošle su kroz dramatične promjene od vremena svojeg stvaranja, tijekom Domovinskog rata, početkom 1990-ih te transformacije koja je uslijedila nakon njega. Političke i ekonomske okolnosti najznačajnije utječu na rashode za obranu (DEFEXP) i veličinu oružanih snaga. Cilj ovoga istraživanja je analizirati moguću kauzalnu vezu između DEFEXP- a i bruto domaćeg proizvoda (GDP), te kauzalnu vezu između DEFEXP-a i broja pripadnika Oružanih snaga (AFP). Glavni izvor podataka u istraživanju su Svjetska Banka (The World Bank) i Stockholmski međunarodni institut za mirovna istraživanja (SIPRI). Istraživanje je temeljeno na korištenju Grangerovog testa uzročnosti u skladu s procedurama koje su predložili Toda i Yammamoto (1995) te na korištenju funkcije impulsnog odziva, za razdoblje od 1995. do 2014. Rezultati su pokazali da na kratki rok i dugi rok ne postoji uzročnost između DEFEXP i GDP-a. Analiza je također pokazala da promjene DEFEXP-a uzrokuju promjenu AFP-a nakon tri godine.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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