The impossible trinity of developing countries – the Greek example*
| Autor: | Đogo, Marko, Gligorić, Dragan, Grujić, Miloš, Mekinjić, Boško |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci : časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu Volume 41 Issue 1 |
| ISSN: | 1846-7520 1331-8004 |
| Popis: | The mobility of factors of production from the very beginnings of the theory of the optimal currency area (OCA) stands out as one of the primary mechanisms for achieving a balance of payments, i.e. sustainability of the monetary union (Mundell criterion). However, there is a significant qualitative difference between the monetary union of countries with similar income levels and the one with different development stages Namely, in the first case, labor mobility, as a rule, has short-term economic effects, while it has a longer-term (more negative) impact – especially on the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS). Many Eastern European countries, which expressed a desire to become part of European integration and the monetary union after the communist ruin, experienced this. In a previous paper, the authors set the thesis about “Impossible Trinity of Developing Countries”. In this paper, the aspiration is to confirm the validity of this theory by analyzing Greece within the period 1999-2020, specifically observing the impact of three variables (fiscal policy, social development level, and level of economic freedom) on the emigration of the population under conditions of monetary union and labor force mobility. The results obtained in this research indicate that the fiscal policy in the observed period was the most significant factor in explaining migration trends. The implications for developing countries that are currently entering (such as Croatia) or intend to enter the monetary union with more developed countries in the future are particularly significant. Mobilnost faktora proizvodnje od samih početaka teorije optimalnog valutnog područja (OCA) izdvaja se kao jedan od primarnih mehanizama za postizanje ravnoteže platne bilance, odnosno održivosti monetarne unije (Mundell kriterijum). Međutim, postoji značajna kvalitativna razlika između situacija u kojima postoji monetarna unija zemalja sa sličnim nivoima prihoda i kada postoji monetarna unija zemalja u različitim razvojnim fazama. Naime, u prvom slučaju mobilnost radne snage, po pravilu, ima kratkoročne ekonomske efekte, dok u drugom slučaju ima dugoročniji (negativniji) utjecaj – posebno na dugoročnu agregatnu ponudu (LRAS). To su doživjele mnoge istočnoeuropske zemlje, koje su nakon propasti komunizma izrazile želju da postanu dio europskih integracija i monetarne unije. U prethodnom radu smo postavili tezu o postojanju “Nemoguće trojstvo zemalja u razvoju”. Ovaj rad nastoji potvrditi valjanost ove teorije. To smo učinili analizirajući događanja u Grčkoj u periodu (1999-2020). Konkretno, analizira se utjecaj triju varijabli (fiskalne politike, nivoa društvenog razvoja, nivoa ekonomskih sloboda) na emigraciju stanovništva u uvjetima monetarne unije i mobilnosti radne snage. Rezultati koje smo dobili pokazuju da je fiskalna politika u promatranom periodu bila najznačajniji faktor u objašnjenju migracionih kretanja. Implikacije za zemlje u razvoju koje trenutno ulaze (poput Hrvatske) ili namjeravaju ući u monetarnu uniju s razvijenijim zemljama su značajne. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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