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Wheat is one of the world’s key staple products, with a global production of 654.7 million tons in 2010. Currently, wheat is providing 21% of the food calories and 20% of the protein to more than 4.5 billion people. Wheat production is highly concentrated in a few countries, and the European Union is by far the most important producer accounting for 21% of total world harvest (EUROSTAT). In the next decades it is expected an increase in the global demand of food, and of wheat in particular. Towards 2050 the world population may rise from 7 to 9 billion people, and the expected improved economic conditions will allow for greater food consumption. To help reaching the goal of improved wheat productivity for global food security, many important initiatives and research programs started both at national and international level. The G20 Agricultural ministries in their 2011 action plan endorsed the Wheat Initiative, to promote coordination and collaborations among national and international research programs for wheat improvement. However, the annual increase in wheat yields has fallen globally from 2.9% to 1.3% since 1966, and this rate will be not sufficient to meet the expected future food demand without a large expansion of crop production area. Given the limited possibilities of increasing the amount of cultivated area, the efficiency of the wheat production factors must improve. In this respect, Europe has a key position as main global wheat producer and exporter. Wheat yields in Europe have shown a constant growth trend during the second half of the 20th century, mainly thanks to the progress in breeding and in the use of inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation. These constant yield improvements allowed Europe to satisfy the growing internal demand after the Second World War and to consolidate its position on the global wheat market. However, since the mid 1990’s, there seems to be a decline in wheat yield growth rates, especially in the most important European producing countries, like France, Germany and the UK. Considering this background, the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) is starting a new research line with the aim to describe the current situation and analyze the elements affecting wheat yields and wheat farming productivity. To scope the issue, the JRC organised a workshop on "Wheat productivity in the EU: determinants and challenges for food security and for climate change" in Seville on 22nd and 23rd November 2012. In this JRC Scientific and Policy Reports we report the main conclusions of the meeting. It appears that the causes of this stagnation in yields are diverse, and identifying them and their individual contribution to this phenomenon is a very complex task. In some cases, scientists have carefully studied the role of specific factors, such as the genetic potential of wheat varieties, yet research addressing the other factors potentially affecting this change in yield trends such as changes in agricultural input use, agronomic and risk management practices, climate change, policy reforms and market signals is not particularly abundant. The analysis of these factors affecting wheat yields and productivity in Europe is now a priority in order to clarify present and future food security challenges and the evolution of the European wheat sector. |
