| Popis: |
While the impacts of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are well documented on topics ranging from agricultural production to socio-economic factors, a closer consideration of key interaction terms in this complex relationship is pivotal for better understanding of future production impacts and as well as relevant policy implications. In this thesis, the ENSO link to staple crop production in the US is derived through an econometric approach, in particular taking advantage of recent advances in the nonlinear parameterization of climate variables such as temperature. Via the comparison of competing model specifications, across all major Corn and Soybean producing regions in the United States, the findings of the present study suggest the ENSO link with crop yields manifests itself primarily via extreme degree days. Following this conclusion, this study further extends previous literature by examining the effect of ENSO anomalies on agricultural production in an out-of-sample setting. Optimal producer strategies can be a powerful adaptive measure to anticipated/forecasted ENSO outcomes, predominantly planting date and crop mix. Key results prove valuable to such strategies, particularly in those regions where the channel of ENSO influence for production is obvious, and statistically significant in a pseudo-forecasting environment. |
