| Popis: |
In the scope of four related essays, this thesis analyzes potential pathways to a low-carbon European electricity supply with a large share of intermittent renewables. In particular, the thesis investigates the related costs of such a transition under different economic and technical developments as well as energy policies. For this purpose, several (stochastic) optimization models and a spatial equilibrium model have been developed. These model-based analyses yield, among others, the following findings: Under cost-efficient energy policies and favorable technical and economic developments, system costs and electricity prices may not increase significantly compared to today. However, this requires a Europe-wide common energy strategy, large amounts of usable land and an open mindset surrounding feasible technology options. Moreover, the integration of intermittent renewable generation remains technically challenging. Given a large share of wind and solar power generation, regional and intraregional weather conditions play an important role in renewable power markets. Thus, simulation models neglecting weather uncertainty, which are often used in practice, underestimate system costs substantially. Furthermore, weather uncertainty induces financial risks for conventional and renewable-based electricity producers. The effect on the financial risk for green electricity producers depends on the renewable promotion scheme and the slope of the power market's supply function. It is shown that feed-in tariffs (fixed-price compensation) do not necessarily offer producers the lowest variance in profits. Moreover, the analysis shows that renewable policies not including the hourly wholesale price set inefficient incentives. For the particular case of concentrating solar plants, flat feed-in tariffs set an inefficient incentive to invest in integrated thermal energy storages in today's electricity market. The analyses in this thesis are carried out for the European electricity system. However, the results may be useful for the assessment of a transition to a low-carbon and mostly renewable-based electricity system in other regions as well. |
