| Popis: |
Due to ageing and growth of the population, the number of persons with a chronic disease will increase in the next twenty years, with the largest increase expected in the number of persons with diabetes and osteoporosis. In the next twenty years, 300,000 additional cases of diabetes are expected, with a further 100,000 cases of diabetes expected if the increase in the prevalence of obesity continues at the present rate. 350,000 additional cases of osteoporosis are expected in the next twenty years. In the past decades, smoking has declined in men, while it has increased in women, resulting in future patterns of smoking-related diseases (COPD and lung cancer) that are different for men and women: a smaller increase in men, and a larger increase in women than expected on the basis of demographic changes alone. These are some of the results drawn from projections of the chronic disease burden for 2005 up to 2025. Projections - for cardiovascular diseases (myocardial infarction, stroke and heart failure), diabetes mellitus, cancer (lung, colon, breast), asthma, COPD and osteoporosis - were made for anticipating future health-care needs and costs. Different methods employed here were: simple demographic projections, using present age-specific prevalence combined with future population numbers; projections using the Chronic Diseases Model, in which trends in diseases observed in the past are taken into account, and projections using the Chronic Diseases Model in which also future trends in obesity and smoking are taken into account. |
