| Autor: |
Bijlsma, Rianne, Er, S., Tiwari, D., Groenendijk, P., Blind, M.W., Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert, Brocks, G. |
| Přispěvatelé: |
Faculty of Engineering Technology, Computational Materials Science |
| Rok vydání: |
2008 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
None |
| Popis: |
Uncertainty analysis for large-scale model studies is a challenging activity that requires a different approach to uncertainty analysis at a smaller scale. However, in river basin studies, the practice of uncertainty analysis at a large scale is mostly derived from practice at a small scale. The limitations and inherent subjectivity of some current practices and assumptions are identified, based on the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis exploring the effects of input data and parameter uncertainty on surface water nutrient concentration. We show that: (i) although the results from small- scale sensitivity analysis are often applied at larger scales, this is not always valid; (ii) the current restriction of the uncertainty assessment to uncertainty types with a strong evidence base gives structurally conservative estimates; (iii) uncertainty due to bias is usually not assessed, but it may easily outweigh the effects of variability; (iv) the uncertainty bandwidth may increase for higher aggregation levels, although the opposite is the standard assumption. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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