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Financial vulnerability can be understood as the risk of an organisation being unable to carry out routine its normal operations due to financial restrictions. Models to estimate financial vulnerability have mainly been developed for profit-making organisations, while few exist for non-profit organisations (NPOs). One example is higher education institutions, which have experienced important changes in Latin America through gratuity policies for student tuition. This study proposes a model to estimate the effects of gratuity on financial vulnerability, as previous studies have focused on the effects of enrolment. A binary logistic regression model is proposed, considering the following variables: debt, income concentration, operating margin, administration costs, and square metres of rooms per student. We applied this model to 54 universities between 2013 and 2019. The results showed that the model is relevant for the debt, size, and operating margin variables. Additionally, we observed that on average, all universities were negatively affected. This result is particularly true for state-owned universities because of certain management restrictions. A limitation of this study is the unavailability of other sources of non-financial information, such as each university’s business model and stock of strategic resources, which could improve our model, as this information is more related to control than to management. |
