Regional gap of pediatrician workforce in Mie Prefecture of Japan: Will it expand in the future?
| Autor: | TANIMURA, Susumu |
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| Jazyk: | japonština |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | 三重看護学誌 = Ｍie Nursing Journal. 20:57-62 |
| ISSN: | 1344-6983 |
| Popis: | To raise children healthily both mentally and physically, enhancing allocation of pediatrician workforce is essential. Toward regional equality in providing pediatric care in Mie Prefecture of Japan, the objectives of this study are to clarify the regional gap in the number of pediatricians per 1000 children, and to evaluate influence of the gap by further declining birthrate in the future under unchanged pediatrician's distribution. The author tried to estimate the regional gap (Gini coefficient) of the number of pediatricians per 1000 children with local empirical Bayes estimation using population projection until 2040. It resulted that the gap would expand in monotone from 2015 to 2040, while, in Mie Prefecture as a whole, the number of pediatricians per 1000 children increased as further decreasing child population. It was successfully demonstrated that the gap would expand if we keep the current allocation of pediatrician workforce, which indicated that we need more active efforts to close the gap in providing pediatric medical care. 子どもを心身ともにより健康に育てるためには充実した小児科医の配置が必要である．本研究は，三重県の小児医療における地域格差是正に資するために，小児科医師数（小児人口千対）における地域格差を明らかにし，また将来のさらなる少子化がその地域格差にどのような影響を与えるのかを明らかにする目的で，市町の小児科医師配置数を現状のままで固定した条件下で，2040 年までの将来推計人口を用いた小児科医師数（小児人口千対）の試算を行った．小児人口の減少に伴い小児科医師数（小児人口千対）は増加傾向を示し小児科医師不足は緩和に向かうものの，市町別の小児科医師数（小児人口千対，ベイズ補正値）は一律に変動せず，地域格差指標（Gini 係数）が年々増大することが明らかになった．従って，小児科医の地理的配置を現状のまま維持すれば地域格差が拡大することが示され，小児医療の地域格差を縮小する積極的な努力が必要であることが示唆された. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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