| Popis: |
In this study, after constructing a simple stochastic model using data on the rate of increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) over the past 30 years, we use the Monte Carlo simulation method to estimate the probability of realization of the rate of increase in TFP assumed by each case in the FY2019 Financial Verification and examine the economic assumptions and pension finance issues. Until the FY2014 Financial Verification, information on which scenarios were probable and which were not was lacking. However, in the FY2019 Financial Verification, frequency distributions based on historical data for key parameters (e.g., the rate of increase in TFP), which form the core of the data, were included as part of the reference materials, and the assumptions for each scenario were clarified as to where they were positioned in the frequency distribution and what percentage of the frequency distribution they covered. While including frequency distributions is commended, the coverage rate does not match the probability of realization of the TFP increase rate assumed by the Financial Verification. This suggests the importance of using a stochastic model to evaluate the rate of increase in TFP, which is an assumption for Financial Verification. |
