Pedestrian fatality and impact speed squared: Cloglog modeling from French national data

Autor: Jean-Louis Martin, Dan Wu
Přispěvatelé: Unité Mixte de Recherche Epidémiologique et de Surveillance Transport Travail Environnement (UMRESTTE UMR T9405), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR), J11-43, VOIESUR - ANR
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Male
Databases
Factual
Poison control
Crash
STATISTICAL MODELING
Occupational safety and health
0302 clinical medicine
Risk Factors
11. Sustainability
Statistics
Forensic engineering
030212 general & internal medicine
CRASH
Child
National data
PEDESTRIAN
05 social sciences
Accidents
Traffic
Middle Aged
Police
Geography
IMPACT SPEED
Child
Preschool
Female
Risk of death
France
Risk assessment
Safety Research
Adult
Adolescent
Acceleration
MODELE STATISTIQUE
ACCIDENTOLOGIE
Pedestrian
Risk Assessment
PIETON
03 medical and health sciences
Young Adult
0502 economics and business
Injury prevention
Humans
Aged
Pedestrians
050210 logistics & transportation
Models
Statistical
VITESSE
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
Infant
Newborn
Infant
FATALITY
[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
human activities
Zdroj: Traffic Injury Prevention
Traffic Injury Prevention, Taylor & Francis, 2017, ⟨10.1080/15389588.2017.1332408⟩
ISSN: 1538-9588
DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2017.1332408⟩
Popis: The present study estimates pedestrians' risk of death according to impact speed when hit by a passenger car in a frontal collision.Data were coded for all fatal crashes in France in 2011 and for a random sample of 1/20th of all road injuries for the same year and weighted to take into account police underreporting of mild injury. A cloglog model was used to optimize risk adjustment for high collision speeds. The fit of the model on the data was also improved by using the square of the impact speed, which best matches the energy dissipated in the collision.Modeling clearly demonstrated that the risk of death was very close to 1 when impact speeds exceeded 80 km/h. For speeds less than 40 km/h, because data representative of all crashes resulting in injury were used, the estimated risk of death was fairly low. However, although the curve seemed deceptively flat below 50 km/h, the risk of death in fact rose 2-fold between 30 and 40 km/h and 6-fold between 30 and 50 km/h. For any given speed, the risk of death was much higher for more elderly subjects, especially those over 75 years of age. These results concern frontal crashes involving a passenger car. Collisions involving trucks are far less frequent, but half result in the pedestrian being run over, incurring greater mortality.For impact speeds below 60 km/h, the shape of the curve relating probability of death to impact speed was very similar to those reported in recent rigorous studies. For higher impact speeds, the present model allows the curve to rise ever more steeply, giving a much better fit to observed data. The present results confirm that, when a pedestrian is struck by a car, impact speed is a major risk factor, thus providing a supplementary argument for strict speed limits in areas where pedestrians are highly exposed.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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