The milestone for preventing post-ERCP pancreatitis using novel simplified predictive scoring system: a propensity score analysis
| Autor: | Kazuki Sumiyama, Yuichi Torisu, Shintaro Tsukinaga, Masayuki Kato, Masanori Nakano, Keisuke Kanazawa, Youichi Tomita, Takahiro Abe, Yuji Kinoshita, Masafumi Chiba, Nana Shimamoto, Hirobumi Toyoizumi |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Multivariate statistics education 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Risk Factors Internal medicine Intensive care medicine Humans Propensity Score Retrospective Studies Cholangiopancreatography Endoscopic Retrograde business.industry Area under the curve medicine.disease Confidence interval Pancreatitis 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Propensity score matching cardiovascular system Etiology 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology Surgery business circulatory and respiratory physiology Abdominal surgery |
| Zdroj: | Surgical endoscopy. 35(12) |
| ISSN: | 1432-2218 |
| Popis: | Post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) with trans-papillary approach remains a major issue, and the multi-factorial etiology can lead to the development of unpredictable PEP. Therefore, the early identification of PEP is highly desirable to assist with the health cost containment, the reduction in unnecessary admissions, earlier appropriate primary care, and intensive care for preventing progression of severe pancreatitis. This study aimed to establish a simplified predictive scoring system for PEP. Between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2019, 3362 consecutive trans-papillary ERCP procedures were retrospectively analyzed. Significant risk factors were extracted by univariate, multivariate, and propensity score analyses, and the probability of PEP in the combinations of each factor were quantified using propensity score analysis. The results were internally validated using bootstrapping resampling. In the scoring system with four stratifications using combinations of only five extracted risk factors, the very high-risk group showed 28.79% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.30%–41.25%; P |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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