Updating beliefs with imperfect signals: experimental evidence
| Autor: | Béatrice Roussillon, François Poinas, Julie Rosaz |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Groupe de recherche en économie mathématique et quantitative (GREMAQ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Toulouse 1 Capitole (UT1), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon), Université des Sciences Sociales (Toulouse 1), Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2), Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée = Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Dao, Taï, École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Toulouse Capitole (UT Capitole), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: |
Economics and Econometrics
Beliefs 05 social sciences Perfect information 050109 social psychology Sample (statistics) [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance Signal [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences Experiment Accounting 0502 economics and business Statistics Econometrics 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences Imperfect 050207 economics Set (psychology) [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE Beliefs Imperfect Information Experiment Finance ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS Imperfect Information Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | 59e Congrès de l'Association Française de Science Economique (AFSE), Paris, 8 et 9 septembre 2010 59e Congrès de l'Association Française de Science Economique (AFSE), Paris, 8 et 9 septembre 2010, Sep 2010, Paris, France Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer Verlag, 2012, 44 (3), pp.219-241. ⟨10.1007/s11166-012-9143-7⟩ 27èmes Journées de Microéconomie Appliquée (JMA) 27èmes Journées de Microéconomie Appliquée (JMA), Jun 2010, Angers, France Association Française de Sciences Economiques, 9-10 septembre Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer Verlag, 2012, 44 (3), pp. 219-241 1st Annual SEBA-GATE Workshop, Beijing Normal University 1st Annual SEBA-GATE Workshop, Beijing Normal University, May 2010, Pékin, China HAL World Congress of the Economic Science Association (ESA), Washington, 25-28 June World Congress of the Economic Science Association (ESA), Washington, 25-28 June, 2009, Washington, United States Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2012, 44 (3), pp.219-241. ⟨10.1007/s11166-012-9143-7⟩ |
| ISSN: | 0895-5646 1573-0476 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11166-012-9143-7⟩ |
| Popis: | This article analyses belief updating when agents receive a signal that restricts the number of possible states of the world. We create an experiment on individual choice under uncertainty. In this experiment, the subject observes an urn, containing yellow and blue balls, whose composition is partially revealed. The subject has to assess the composition of the urn and form an initial belief. Then, he receives a signal that restricts the set of the possible urns from which the initial observed sample is drawn. Once again, he has to estimate the composition of the urn. Our results show that, on the whole, this type of signal increases the frequency of correct assessment. However, differences appear between validating and invalidating signals (i.e. signals that either confirm or disprove the initial belief). The later significantly increase the probability to make a correct assessment whereas validating signals reduce the frequency of correct estimations. We find evidences of lack of persistence in choice under uncertainty. The literature shows that people may persist with their choice even when they are wrong. We show that they may also change even if they are right. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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