A Predictive Risk Model for Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke
| Autor: | E. C. Haley, Alfred F. Connors, Karen C. Johnston, Xin-Qun Wang, William A. Knaus, Douglas P. Wagner |
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| Rok vydání: | 2000 |
| Předmět: |
Male
medicine.medical_specialty MEDLINE Logistic regression Outcome (game theory) law.invention Double-Blind Method Randomized controlled trial law Humans Medicine Pregnatrienes Stroke Aged Advanced and Specialized Nursing Models Statistical business.industry Multivariable calculus Glasgow Outcome Scale Middle Aged Prognosis medicine.disease Clinical trial Neuroprotective Agents Injections Intravenous Physical therapy Female Neurology (clinical) Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine business |
| Zdroj: | Stroke. 31:448-455 |
| ISSN: | 1524-4628 0039-2499 |
| Popis: | Background and Purpose —The great variability of outcome seen in stroke patients has led to an interest in identifying predictors of outcome. The combination of clinical and imaging variables as predictors of stroke outcome in a multivariable risk adjustment model may be more powerful than either alone. The purpose of this study was to determine the multivariable relationship between infarct volume, 6 clinical variables, and 3-month outcomes in ischemic stroke patients. Methods —Included in the study were 256 eligible patients from the Randomized Trial of Tirilazad Mesylate in Acute Stroke (RANTTAS). Six clinical variables and 1-week infarct volume were the prespecified predictor variables. The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, Barthel Index, and Glasgow Outcome Scale were the outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression techniques were used to develop the model equations, and bootstrap techniques were used for internal validation. Predictive performance of the models was assessed for discrimination with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and for calibration with calibration curves. Results —The predictive models had areas under the ROC curve of 0.79 to 0.88 and demonstrated nearly ideal calibration curves. The areas under the ROC curves were statistically greater ( P Conclusions —Combined clinical and imaging variables are predictive of 3-month outcome in ischemic stroke patients. Demonstration of this relationship with acute clinical variables and 1-week infarct information supports future attempts to predict 3-month outcome with all acute variables. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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