Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling
Autor: | Reik V. Donner, Ramesh Vellore, A. G. Prajeesh, Manmeet Singh, N. Sandeep, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Jürgen Kurths, Bedartha Goswami, Norbert Marwan, Raghavan Krishnan, C. Venkataraman, P. Swapna |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
Monsoon of South Asia
0303 health sciences geography Multidisciplinary geography.geographical_feature_category 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences SciAdv r-articles Geology Forcing (mathematics) Monsoon 01 natural sciences 03 medical and health sciences Volcano Climatology Paleoclimatology Climate sensitivity Environmental science Predictability Stratosphere Research Articles 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Research Article |
Zdroj: | Science Advances |
ISSN: | 2375-2548 |
Popis: | Large volcanic eruptions enhance the coupling between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian monsoon. Coupling of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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