Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Autor: | Joyce Kimutai, Karin van der Wiel, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Mathias Hauser, Chris Funk, Michael T. Hobbins, Ted Veldkamp, Niko Wanders |
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Přispěvatelé: | Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Water and Climate Risk |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
Irrigation
lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology business.industry lcsh:QE1-996.5 Evaporation rate Climate change Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) Crop failure Atmospheric sciences lcsh:Geology Food insecurity lcsh:QE500-639.5 Agriculture SDG 13 - Climate Action General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science lcsh:Q 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0405 Oceanography Precipitation 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience lcsh:Science business Water content |
Zdroj: | Kew, S F, Philip, S Y, Hauser, M, Hobbins, M, Wanders, N, Jan Van Oldenborgh, G, Van Der Wiel, K, Veldkamp, T I E, Kimutai, J, Funk, C & Otto, F E L 2021, ' Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa ', Earth System Dynamics, vol. 12, no. 1, 12, pp. 17-35 . https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021 Earth System Dynamics, 12(1), 17. Copernicus GmbH Earth System Dynamics, 12(1):12, 17-35. Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH Earth System Dynamics, Vol 12, Pp 17-35 (2021) Earth System Dynamics, 12 (1) |
ISSN: | 2190-4987 2190-4979 |
DOI: | 10.5194/esd-12-17-2021 |
Popis: | In eastern Africa droughts can cause crop failure and lead to food insecurity. With increasing temperatures, there is an a priori assumption that droughts are becoming more severe. However, the link between droughts and climate change is not sufficiently understood. Here we investigate trends in long-term agricultural drought and the influence of increasing temperatures and precipitation deficits. Using a combination of models and observational datasets, we studied trends, spanning the period from 1900 (to approximate pre-industrial conditions) to 2018, for six regions in eastern Africa in four drought-related annually averaged variables: soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand (E0). In standardized soil moisture data, we found no discernible trends. The strongest influence on soil moisture variability was from precipitation, especially in the drier or water-limited study regions; temperature and E0 did not demonstrate strong relations to soil moisture. However, the error margins on precipitation trend estimates are large and no clear trend is evident, whereas significant positive trends were observed in local temperatures. The trends in E0 are predominantly positive, but we do not find strong relations between E0 and soil moisture trends. Nevertheless, the E0 trend results can still be of interest for irrigation purposes because it is E0 that determines the maximum evaporation rate. We conclude that until now the impact of increasing local temperatures on agricultural drought in eastern Africa is limited and we recommend that any soil moisture analysis be supplemented by an analysis of precipitation deficit. Earth System Dynamics, 12 (1) ISSN:2190-4987 ISSN:2190-4979 |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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