The Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number from Disease Outbreak Data
| Autor: | Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Harvey Thomas Banks, Ariel Cintrón-Arias, Luís M. A. Bettencourt, Alun L. Lloyd |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Biometry
Gaussian Context (language use) Generalized least squares 01 natural sciences Communicable Diseases Disease Outbreaks 010104 statistics & probability 03 medical and health sciences symbols.namesake Statistics Disease Transmission Infectious Prevalence Humans Quantitative Biology::Populations and Evolution 0101 mathematics Fisher information Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution 030304 developmental biology Mathematics Proportional Hazards Models 0303 health sciences Estimation theory Applied Mathematics Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) Statistical model General Medicine Variance (accounting) 3. Good health Computational Mathematics Sampling distribution FOS: Biological sciences Modeling and Simulation symbols General Agricultural and Biological Sciences Algorithms |
| Popis: | We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a generalized least squares (GLS) estimation technique. We do this in the context of appropriate statistical models for the measurement process. We use asymptotic statistical theories to derive the mean and variance of the limiting (Gaussian) sampling distribution and to perform post statistical analysis of the inverse problems. We illustrate the ideas and pitfalls (e.g., large condition numbers on the corresponding Fisher information matrix) with both synthetic and influenza incidence data sets. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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