Processos de depreciação cambial são expansionistas ou contracionistas no Brasil? Uma avaliação do efeito do descasamento cambial do setor privado
| Autor: | Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Endividamento externo
Sociology and Political Science Balance sheet effect Devaluation Currency mismatch Exchange rate Monetary economics 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine 0502 economics and business Economics Balance sheet 030212 general & internal medicine 050207 economics External debt Hedge (finance) lcsh:HB71-74 business.industry 05 social sciences Public sector lcsh:Economics as a science Private sector Currency Political Science and International Relations Efeito balanço Descasamento cambial business General Economics Econometrics and Finance Taxa de câmbio |
| Zdroj: | Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol 39, Iss 1, Pp 3-22 Brazilian Journal of Political Economy v.39 n.1 2019 Revista de Economia Política EDITORA 34 instacron:EDITORA_34 |
| ISSN: | 1809-4538 0101-3157 |
| DOI: | 10.1590/0101-35172019-2970 |
| Popis: | This paper deals with the evolution of the currency mismatch in the Brazilian economy in the last two decades, with the aim of assessing the vulnerability of the economy to an exchange rate devaluation, through the balance sheet effect. We highlight the deep changes in the structure of the Brazilian external liabilities during that period. The main change was the radical fall in the net external debt, which turned from highly positive to negative. However, this reflects only the public sector position, since private external debt remained highly positive. To go further into our analysis, we subtracted the hedge operations through derivatives contracts from the primary currency mismatch. We then arrived at the conclusion that not only the effective private sector currency mismatch is quite lower than could be thought by looking only at the International Investment Position data, but also that it has diminished substantially in the last 5 years. Therefore, the risk of an important balance sheet effect as a consequence of a devaluation is lower than currently estimated. JEL Classification: F31; F32; F34; F41. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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