Economic risk linkages between Israel and middle east countries

Autor: Vedat Yorucu, Dervis Kirikkaleli
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
Zdroj: Panoeconomicus, Vol 65, Iss 4, Pp 427-440 (2018)
ISSN: 2217-2386
1452-595X
DOI: 10.2298/pan150227009k
Popis: This study analyses the economic risk relationship between seven of the top economies in the Middle East and Israel. Our findings are of great interest and likely to begin a new debate in the Middle East region. The results of a Block Exogeneity Walt test reveal that economic stability in Israel does Granger-cause economic stability in Lebanon, Oman, Qatar and the UAE. Reverse causality has been validated for Lebanon and Bahrain only. We also find that there is a positive impact on Israel’s economic stability over the stability of Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE with different seasonal patterns. In the reverse direction, in response to a shock to Israel’s economic stability, the stability of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait are also found to be positive and significant with different seasonal frequencies. Key wods: Israel, Middle East, Economic Risk, Block Exogeneity-Wald Test, Generalized Impulse Response Function. JEL: C32, F32. Povezivanje ekonomskih rizika između Izraela i zemalja Bliskog istoka U radu se analizira odnos ekonomskog rizika između sedam vodecih ekonomija na Bliskom Istoku i Izraelu. Nasi nalazi su od velikog interesa i verovatno ce zapoceti novu debatu na podrucju Bliskog Istoka. Rezultati egzogenog Block Wald testa pokazuju da ekonomska stabilnost u Izraelu uzrokuje u Granger-ovom smislu ekonomsku stabilnost u Libanu, Omanu, Qataru i UAE. Povratna uzrocnost je validirana samo za Libanon i Bahrein. Takođe smo zakljucili da postoji pozitivan uticaj ekonomske stabilnosti Izraela na stabilnost Bahreina, Kuwaita i UAE sa razlicitim sezonskim obrascima. U suprotnom smeru, kao odgovor na sok na ekonomsku stabilnost Izraela, stabilnost UAE, Saudijske Arabije, Omana i Kuwaita takođe se smatra pozitivnim i znacajnim sa razlicitim sezonskim frekvencijama. Kljucne reci: Izrael, Bliski Istok, ekonomski rizik, egzogeni Block Wald test, generalizovana funkcija impulsnog odziva.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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