Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Autor: Fereshteh Ansari, Richard C. Franklin, Naznin Hossain, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Mahdi Bohluli, Irena Ilic, Anwar Faraj, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Sanni Yaya, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Ehsan Sadeghi, Bach Xuan Tran, Leila Zaki, Mohammad Miri, Maha El Tantawi, Maciej Banach, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Kira A Barbre, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Mehdi Naderi, Behzad Karami Matin, Yunquan Zhang, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Zahid A Butt, Nuruzzaman Khan, Robert L. Thompson, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Rovshan Khalilov, Usman Iqbal, K M Shivakumar, Leili Tapak, Chris A Schmidt, Priya Rathi, Shanshan Li, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Chuanhua Yu, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Davood Anvari, Hoa Thi Do, Abdullah Al Mamun, Obinna Onwujekwe, Serge Resnikoff, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Joshua C. P. Osborne, Farahnaz Joukar, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Turki Alanzi, Katie M Donkers, Amir Kasaeian, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Paul S. F. Yip, Tomislav Mestrovic, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Katherine Gass, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Gurudatta Naik, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Aziz Rezapour, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Ahmed Omar Bali, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Paul H. Lee, Vahid Alipour, Kebede Deribe, Megan F. Schipp, Ziyad Al-Aly, Biagio Simonetti, Masoud Moradi, Jalal Arabloo, Reza Rawassizadeh, Saif Ullah, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Abedin Saghafipour, Fakher Rahim, Tinuke O Olagunju, Kimberly B. Johnson, Souranshu Chatterjee, Salvatore Rubino, Nataliya Foigt, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Taras Kavetskyy, Carlo La Vecchia, Eduarda Fernandes, Mohsen Mazidi, Claudiu Herteliu, Sojib Bin Zaman, Aziz Sheikh, Yong Yu, David Laith Rawaf, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Natalie V S Vinkeles Melchers, Samath D Dharmaratne, Enrico Rubagotti, Fahad Alanezi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Masoud Foroutan, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Milena Ilic, Melese Abate Reta, Dian Kusuma, Ali Manafi, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Giovanni Damiani, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Van C. Lansingh, Till Bärnighausen, Benjamin F. Arnold, Natalie Maria Cormier, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ahmad Daryani, Ali Bijani, Jae Il Shin, Samer Hamidi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Mohsen Bayati, Tomohide Yamada, Zubair Kabir, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Jonathan F. Mosser, Gbenga A. Kayode, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Shahin Soltani, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Salah Eddin Karimi, Alan J Thomson, Daniel Diaz, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Oliver J. Brady, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Yousef Fatahi, Sadia Bibi, Bogdan Oancea, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Valery L. Feigin, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Ted R. Miller, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Atif Amin Baig, Maryam Zamanian, Kate E. LeGrand, Salahuddin Mohammed, Yuming Guo, Irfan Ullah, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Mowafa Househ, Ionut Negoi, Naohiro Yonemoto, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Hadi Pourjafar, Navid Manafi, Neda Kianipour, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Victor Adekanmbi, Seid Tiku Mereta, Olalekan A. Uthman, Arash Ziapour, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Paula Moraga, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, María-Gloria Basáñez, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Mona M. Khater, Andrew T Olagunju, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Davide Guido, Kiomars Sharafi, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Tarig B. Higazi, Afshin Maleki, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Soewarta Kosen, Amin Soheili, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Thomas R. Unnasch, Mohsen Afarideh, Takahiro Tabuchi, Shreya Shirude, Marcel Ausloos, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Amira Shaheen, Shafiu Mohammed, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Eugenio Traini, Leila R Kalankesh, Kris J. Krohn, Colm McAlinden, Walter Mendoza, Maryam Keramati, Ravi Prakash Jha, David M. Pigott, Elex Hill, Abdallah M. Samy, Farah Daoud
Přispěvatelé: Wanji, Samuel, Public Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council (Reino Unido), Department for International Development (Reino Unido), Unión Europea, Cromwell E.A., Osborne J.C.P., Unnasch T.R., Basanez M., Gass K.M., Barbre K.A., Hill E., Johnson K.B., Donkers K.M., Shirude S., Schmidt C.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Afarideh M., Ahmadpour E., Beshir Ahmed M., Yihunie Akalu T., Al-Aly Z., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Alipour V., Andrei C.L., Ansari F., Ansha M.G., Anvari D., Yaw Appiah S.C., Arabloo J., Arnold B.F., Ausloos M., Ayanore M.A., Amin Baig A., Banach M., Barac A., Barnighausen T.W., Bayati M., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z.A., Bibi S., Bijani A., Bohlouli S., Bohluli M., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Butt Z.A., Carvalho F., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chattu S.K., Cormier N.M., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Daoud F., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Deribe K., Dharmaratne S.D., Diaz D., Do H.T., El Sayed Zak M., El Tantawi M., Elemineh D.A., Faraj A., Harandi M.F., Fatahi Y., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Franklin R.C., Mohialdeen Gubari M.I., Guido D., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Abdullah K.H., Hamidi S., Herteliu C., De Hidru H.D., Higazi T.B., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Ilic I.M., Iqbal U., Naghibi Irvani S.S., Jha R.P., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Matin B.K., Karimi S.E., Kasaeian A., Kavetskyy T., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Kelbore A.G., Keramati M., Khalilov R., Khan E.A., Nuruzzaman Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater M.M., Kianipour N., Kibret K.T., Kim Y.J., Kosen S., Krohn K.J., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lansingh Van C., Lee P.H., Legrand K.E., Li S., Longbottom J., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Maleki A., Mamun A.A., Manafi A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., Meharie B.G., Mendoza W., Mengesha E.W., Mengistu D.T., Mereta S.T., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Miri M., Moghadaszadeh M., Hafshejani A.M., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naik G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen T.H., Nikbakhsh R., Oancea B., Olagunju T.O., Olagunju A.T., Bali A.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Pana A., Pourjafar H., Rahim F., Ur Rahman M.H., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawassizadeh R., Resnikoff S., Reta M.A., Rezapour A., Rubagotti E., Rubino S., Sadeghi E., Saghafipour A., Sajadi S.M., Samy A.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schipp M.F., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sheikh A., Kumar Shetty B.S., Shin J.I., Shivakumar K.M., Simonetti B., Singh J.A., Skiadaresi E., Soheili A., Soltani S., Spurlock E.E., Sufiyan M.B., Tabuchi T., Tapak L., Thompson R.L., Thomson A.J., Traini E., Tran B.X., Ullah I., Ullah S., Uneke C.J., Unnikrishnan B., Uthman O.A., Melchers N.V.S.V., Violante F.S., Wolde H.F., Wonde T.E., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yazdi Feyzabadi V., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yousof H.-A.S.A., Yu C., Yu Y., Yusefzadeh H., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zhang Z.-J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Pigott D.M., Cuidado de la Salud y Desarrollo Sostenible
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Oncocercosis
Decision Analysis
RC955-962
Onchocerciasis
law.invention
Geographical Locations
Medical Conditions
0302 clinical medicine
law
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
Medicine and Health Sciences
030212 general & internal medicine
Onchocerca
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Data Management
biology
Pharmaceutics
wc_695
Enfermedades Parasitarias
Onchocerciasi
3. Good health
Infectious Diseases
Geography
Transmission (mechanics)
Helminth Infections
Engineering and Technology
Mass Drug Administration
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Management Engineering
Cartography
Human
Research Article
Neglected Tropical Diseases
Computer and Information Sciences
Drug Administration
030231 tropical medicine
Decision tree
wa_395
Dermatology
wc_765
Environment
wc_885
Research and Analysis Methods
Skin Diseases
03 medical and health sciences
Drug Therapy
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Diagnostic Medicine
Tropical Medicine
Parasitic Diseases
medicine
Humans
Disease Eradication
Spatial analysis
Ivermectin
Data collection
Receiver operating characteristic
Data Visualization
Decision Trees
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
06 Biological Sciences
Elimination planning
Africa
Implementation units
Public health
Tropical Diseases
medicine.disease
biology.organism_classification
Health Care
ROC Curve
People and Places
Health Statistics
Morbidity
Scale (map)
Forecasting
Zdroj: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(7):e0008824. Public Library of Science
Repisalud
Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)
Repositorio Institucional UDCA
Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales U.D.C.A
instacron:Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales U.D.C.A
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e0008824 (2021)
ISSN: 1935-2735
1935-2727
Popis: Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
Author summary As of 2018, it was unknown if onchocerciasis transmission occurred among approximately 2 400 implementation units (IUs; typically, second administrative-level units, such as districts) considered potentially endemic. These IUs have either never been surveyed for onchocerciasis or historical data are not sufficient to define contemporary endemicity status. Given the large number of IUs for which baseline data collection is likely required to achieve continental elimination, there is a need to prioritise areas for surveys to ensure that those suitable for endemic transmission, and therefore potentially eligible for mass drug administration, are able to initiate interventions as soon as possible. We used boosted regression trees to predict environmental suitability for onchocerciasis, with corresponding measures of uncertainty. We summarized the fine scale spatial predictions at the IU level by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify a threshold that maximized agreement with the occurrence locations to identify IUs that may warrant prioritisation for mapping surveys. This analysis suggests that approximately half of the IUs considered for surveys could be classified as environmentally suitable for onchocerciasis. In order to develop an elimination strategy, many national onchocerciasis elimination programmes (NOEPs) need a mechanism to synthesise historical data to define priority areas for surveys.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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