Predictive Modeling and Categorizing Likelihoods of Quarantine Pest Introduction of Imported Propagative Commodities from Different Countries
| Autor: | Daniel Egger, ByeongJoon Kim, Robert L. Griffin, Seung Cheon Hong, Catherine S. Katsar |
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| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Generalized linear model
risk‐based inspection Computer science 0211 other engineering and technologies 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences Action rate Bayesian inference 01 natural sciences law.invention Risk-based inspection law Original Research Articles Physiology (medical) Quarantine Statistics Original Research Article uncertainty Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Cluster analysis 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 021110 strategic defence & security studies categorization Confidence interval quarantine pests Ranking Interception |
| Zdroj: | Risk Analysis |
| ISSN: | 1539-6924 0272-4332 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/risa.13252 |
| Popis: | The present study investigates U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection records in the Agricultural Quarantine Activity System database to estimate the probability of quarantine pests on propagative plant materials imported from various countries of origin and to develop a methodology ranking the risk of country–commodity combinations based on quarantine pest interceptions. Data collected from October 2014 to January 2016 were used for developing predictive models and validation study. A generalized linear model with Bayesian inference and a generalized linear mixed effects model were used to compare the interception rates of quarantine pests on different country–commodity combinations. Prediction ability of generalized linear mixed effects models was greater than that of generalized linear models. The estimated pest interception probability and confidence interval for each country–commodity combination was categorized into one of four compliance levels: “High,” “Medium,” “Low,” and “Poor/Unacceptable,” Using K‐means clustering analysis. This study presents risk‐based categorization for each country–commodity combination based on the probability of quarantine pest interceptions and the uncertainty in that assessment. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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