MODELING WORLD NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL TRADE NETWORKS

Autor: Masoud Shirazi, Jurica Šimurina
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Ekonomski pregled
Volume 74
Issue 1
Masoud Shirazi
ISSN: 1848-9494
0424-7558
Popis: World energy security is sensitive to stable energy environment and geopolitics that depend on inter-regional energy trade strategies. However, this study uses the network connectedness measures of Diebold-Yilmaz to find the trade cooperation/competition preference for non-renewables’ security development. To this end, the dynamic asymmetries of weighted spillover effects of natural gas and crude oil trade flow components are analyzed throughout world trade networks before- and after the sharp fall in crude oil prices. The results exhibit that natural gas and crude oil trade networks experience asymmetric- and time-varying behavior in response to transitoryvs. permanent components as well as positive- vs. negative shocks pre-and post- sharp fall in crude oil prices. Specifically, the natural gas and crude oil trade networks show a lesser degree of integration after 2014. Moreover, the natural gas trade network represents more (less) weighted sensitivity to short-term fluctuations (long-term trend) than the crude oil trade network pre-and post- 2014. As the other comparative result, a higher (lower) degree of integration is detected in the crude oil trade network in response to the positive (negative) shocks compared to the natural gas trade network pre-and post- 2014. Therefore, a lower level of cooperation preference among regions is proposed in the natural gas and crude oil trade networks in response to a sharp fall in crude oil prices. Also, decisions about energy conservation, environmental protection, and protection of strategic resources can affect a region’s natural gas and crude oil supply and demand security.
Energetska sigurnost osjetljiva je na stabilnost okruženja i geopolitiku koja ovisi o među regionalnim energetskim trgovinskim strategijama. U ovom radu koristimo Diebold-Yilmaz mjeru povezanosti mreža kako bi utvrdili postojanje preferencije cooperacije/konkurencije za neobnovljive resurse. U ovu svrhu analiziramo dinamičku asimetričnost vaganog efekt prelijevanja komponenti trgovinskih tokova prirodnog plina i sirove nafte kroz svjetske trgovinske tokove prije i poslije oštrih padova cijene sirove nafte. Rezultati pokazuju da trgovinske mreže za prirodni plin i sirovu naftu odlikuje asimetričan i vremenski varirajuće ponašanje kao odgovor na transitorne u odnosu na permanentne komponente, kao i pozitivne u odnosu na negativne šokove prije i poslije oštrih padova cijene sirove nafte. Također, trgovinske mreže prirodnog plina i sirove nafte odražavaju nižu razinu integracije nakon 2014. Trgovinske mreže prirodnog plina predstavljaju višu (nižu) vaganu osjetljivost na kratkoročne fluktuacije (dugoročni trend) od trgovinskih mreža sirove nafte prije i nakon 2014. Viši (niži) stupanj integracije detektiran je za trgovinske mreže sirove nafte kao odgovor na pozitivne (negativne) šokove u odnosu na trgovinske mreže za prirodni plin prije i nakon 2014. Prema tome, niža preferencija kooperacije među regijama sugerira se za trgovinske mreže prirodnog plina i sirove nafte kao odgovor na oštar pad cijene sirove nafte. Također, odluke o smanjenju energentske intenzivnosti, očuvanju okoliša i zaštiti strateških resursa mogu utjecati na sigurnost ponude i potražnje za prirodnim plinom i sirovom naftoma.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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