Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM
| Autor: | Wilco Hazeleger, Geert Lenderink, Frank Selten, Sarah F. Kew |
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| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: |
Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit
rijn Drainage basin simulation models netherlands river rhine lcsh:Technology water systems meteorologische factoren watersystemen toekomst Range (statistics) lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering lcsh:Environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 catchment hydrology projections geography.geographical_feature_category scenarios lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation water level simulatiemodellen regen Catchment hydrology Climatology hydrologie van stroomgebieden simulations europe future Meteorology and Air Quality meteorological factors Climate change precipitation storm track lcsh:TD1-1066 waterstand rain Precipitation geography WIMEK climatic change lcsh:T regional climate model Simulation modeling temperature klimaatverandering shift rivers neerslag rivieren lcsh:G Environmental science Storm track Quantile |
| Zdroj: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1157-1166 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 4, Pp 1157-1166 (2011) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15 (2011) |
| ISSN: | 1607-7938 1027-5606 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/hessd-7-9043-2010 |
| Popis: | Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins. Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to 1961–1990. We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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