A population-based study of breast cancer prevalence in Australia: predicting the future health care needs of women living with breast cancer
| Autor: | Qingwei Luo, Roberta De Angelis, Nehmat Houssami, Dianne L. O'Connell, Xue Qin Yu, Clare Kahn |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Předmět: |
Cancer Research
analysis diagnosis Epidemiology Breast cancer 0302 clinical medicine Health care Prevalence Registries Survivors 030212 general & internal medicine Neoplasm Metastasis Aged 80 and over education.field_of_study Incidence Incidence (epidemiology) Neoplasms Second Primary Middle Aged 3. Good health Oncology Population Surveillance 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Cancer Control Survivorship and Outcomes Research - Surveillance Cancer Type - Breast Cancer Female End-of-life care Research Article Adult medicine.medical_specialty Adolescent Cancer survivorship Population Breast Neoplasms survival History 21st Century methods Young Adult 03 medical and health sciences Cancer prevalence Survivorship curve medicine Genetics cancer cancer registry Humans Women education breast Aged Gynecology therapy Health Services Needs and Demand Models Statistical business.industry Research Australia Reproducibility of Results History 20th Century medicine.disease Cancer registry Statistical projection business Demography |
| Zdroj: | BMC Cancer |
| ISSN: | 1471-2407 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/1471-2407-14-936 |
| Popis: | Background Breast cancer places a heavy burden on the Australian healthcare system, but information about the actual number of women living with breast cancer and their current or future health service needs is limited. We used existing population-based data and innovative statistical methods to address this critical research question in a well-defined geographic region. Methods Breast cancer data from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry and PIAMOD (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel) software were used to project future breast cancer prevalence in NSW. Parametric models were fitted to incidence and survival data, and the modelled incidence and survival estimates were then used to estimate current and future prevalence. To estimate future healthcare requirements the projected prevalence was then divided into phases of care according to the different stages of the survivorship trajectory. Results The number of women in NSW living with a breast cancer diagnosis had increased from 19,305 in 1990 to 48,754 in 2007. This number is projected to increase further to 68,620 by 2017. The majority of these breast cancer survivors will require continued monitoring (31,974) or will be long-term survivors (29,785). About 9% will require active treatment (either initial therapy, or treatment for subsequent metastases or second cancer) and 1% will need end of life care due to breast cancer. Conclusions Extrapolating these projections to the national Australian population would equate to 209,200 women living with breast cancer in Australia in 2017, many of whom will require active treatment or post-treatment monitoring. Thus, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2407-14-936) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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