Dynamic prediction model to identify young children at high risk of future overweight: Development and internal validation in a cohort study
Autor: | Marleen Hamoen, Jos W. R. Twisk, Ulrike Gehring, Marlou L. A. de Kroon, Martijn W. Heymans, Gerard H. Koppelman, Hein Raat, Alet H. Wijga, Marieke Welten |
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Přispěvatelé: | Public Health, IRAS OH Epidemiology Chemical Agents, dIRAS RA-2, Epidemiology and Data Science, APH - Health Behaviors & Chronic Diseases, APH - Personalized Medicine, APH - Methodology, Groningen Research Institute for Asthma and COPD (GRIAC), Public Health Research (PHR) |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
Male
0301 basic medicine Pediatric Obesity Overweight general population Body Mass Index Cohort Studies 0302 clinical medicine Pregnancy Risk Factors Surveys and Questionnaires Ethnicity Birth Weight 4-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN Child Generalized estimating equation Original Research Netherlands young children education.field_of_study Nutrition and Dietetics Health Policy Incidence (epidemiology) Area under the curve PREVALENCE Child Preschool OBESITY Educational Status GROWTH Female medicine.symptom Cohort study Population future overweight 030209 endocrinology & metabolism primordial prevention dynamic prediction model 03 medical and health sciences medicine cohort study Humans education CHILDHOOD OVERWEIGHT 030109 nutrition & dietetics CONSEQUENCES business.industry Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Infant medicine.disease Obesity PREVENTION primordialprevention Pediatrics Perinatology and Child Health WEIGHT business Body mass index Demography |
Zdroj: | Pediatric obesity, 15(9):e12647. Wiley-Blackwell for the International Association for the Study of Obesity Pediatric Obesity, 15(9):e12647. Wiley-Blackwell Pediatric obesity, 15(9):12647 Pediatric Obesity Welten, M, Wijga, A H, Hamoen, M, Gehring, U, Koppelman, G H, Twisk, J W R, Raat, H, Heymans, M W & de Kroon, M L A 2020, ' Dynamic prediction model to identify young children at high risk of future overweight : Development and internal validation in a cohort study ', Pediatric Obesity, vol. 15, no. 9, e12647 . https://doi.org/10.1111/ijpo.12647 Pediatric obesity, 15(9), 1. Wiley-Blackwell for the International Association for the Study of Obesity |
ISSN: | 2047-6310 2047-6302 |
Popis: | BACKGROUND: Primary prevention of overweight is to be preferred above secondary prevention, which has shown moderate effectiveness.OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model to identify young children in the general population, applicable at every age between birth and age 6, at high risk of future overweight (age 8).METHODS: Data were used from the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy birth cohort, born in 1996 to 1997, in the Netherlands. Participants for whom data on the outcome overweight at age 8 and at least three body mass index SD scores (BMI SDS) at the age of ≥3 months and ≤6 years were available, were included (N = 2265). The outcome of the prediction model is overweight (yes/no) at age 8 (range 7.4-10.5 years), defined according to the sex- and age-specific BMI cut-offs of the International Obesity Task Force.RESULTS: After backward selection in a Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, the prediction model included the baseline predictors maternal BMI, paternal BMI, paternal education, birthweight, sex, ethnicity and indoor smoke exposure; and the longitudinal predictors BMI SDS, and the linear and quadratic terms of the growth curve describing a child's BMI SDS development over time, as well as the longitudinal predictors' interactions with age. The area under the curve of the model after internal validation was 0.845 and Nagelkerke R2 was 0.351.CONCLUSIONS: A dynamic prediction model for overweight was developed with a good predictive ability using easily obtainable predictor information. External validation is needed to confirm that the model has potential for use in practice. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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