Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin
| Autor: | Ricardo Zubieta, Mercy Ilbay-Yupa, Mario García-Mora, Franklin Ilbay, Paolo Chasi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Wet season
geography geography.geographical_feature_category Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes droughts Geography Planning and Development Drainage basin Climate change Hydraulic engineering Aquatic Science Structural basin Biochemistry climate change Effects of global warming Streamflow Dry season Environmental science Physical geography Precipitation Ecuador TC1-978 impacts TD201-500 Water Science and Technology Guayas |
| Zdroj: | Water Volume 13 Issue 21 Water, Vol 13, Iss 3138, p 3138 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 2073-4441 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/w13213138 |
| Popis: | The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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