Mortality Characteristic and Prediction of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013
| Autor: | Zhen-Xi Xu, Kusheng Wu, Kun Lin, Zhi-Xiong Lin, Pei-Ling Du, Yang Zeng, Xiao-Ling Xu, Wen-Rui Tang, Jia-Ying Fang |
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| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Male Rural Population China Cancer Research medicine.medical_specialty Pathology Adolescent Urban Population Epidemiology Nasopharyngeal neoplasm Young Adult Sex Factors Carcinoma medicine Humans Registries Mortality Young adult Child Aged Aged 80 and over Estimation business.industry Mortality rate Age Factors Infant Newborn Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Infant Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms Middle Aged medicine.disease Standardized mortality ratio Oncology Nasopharyngeal carcinoma Child Preschool Female business Forecasting Demography |
| Zdroj: | Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention. 16:6729-6734 |
| ISSN: | 1513-7368 |
| DOI: | 10.7314/apjcp.2015.16.15.6729 |
| Popis: | Background To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Materials and methods Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. Results In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of 1.45 /105 at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China. Conclusions The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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