Using a scenario-neutral framework to avoid potential maladaptation in future flood risk
| Autor: | Ciaran Broderick, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Mark Adamson, Conor Murphy, Robert L. Wilby |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Informatics
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology Climate change Sample (statistics) Context (language use) 02 engineering and technology scenario neutral catchment regionalization 01 natural sciences Catchment flooding Hydrological hydrological model uncertainty Research Articles 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Maladaptation Coupled model intercomparison project Flood myth Modeling Climate Impacts Linear discriminant analysis Annual cycle Physical Modeling Floods 020801 environmental engineering History of Geophysics Climate Impact climate change Climatology Environmental science Hydrology Ireland Natural Hazards Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Water Resources Research |
| Popis: | This study develops a coherent framework to detect those catchment types associated with a high risk of maladaptation to future flood risk. Using the “scenario‐neutral” approach to impact assessment the sensitivity of Irish catchments to fluvial flooding is examined in the context of national climate change allowances. A predefined sensitivity domain is used to quantify flood responses to +2 °C mean annual temperature with incremental changes in the seasonality and mean of the annual precipitation cycle. The magnitude of the 20‐year flood is simulated at each increment using two rainfall‐runoff models (GR4J, NAM), then concatenated as response surfaces for 35 sample catchments. A typology of catchment sensitivity is developed using clustering and discriminant analysis of physical attributes. The same attributes are used to classify 215 ungauged/data‐sparse catchments. To address possible redundancies, the exposure of different catchment types to projected climate is established using an objectively selected subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble. Hydrological model uncertainty is shown to significantly influence sensitivity and have a greater effect than ensemble bias. A national flood risk allowance of 20%, considering all 215 catchments is shown to afford protection against ~48% to 98% of the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 subset (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; 2070–2099), irrespective of hydrological model and catchment type. However, results indicate that assuming a standard national or regional allowance could lead to local over/under adaptation. Herein, catchments with relatively less storage are sensitive to seasonal amplification in the annual cycle of precipitation and warrant special attention. Key Points The “scenario‐neutral” framework provides valuable insights into the climate sensitivity of individual and regionalized catchment typesAssuming a national allowance when factoring climate change into designs could lead to local over/under adaptation to future flood riskCatchments with relatively less storage capacity are more sensitive to an amplified seasonal precipitation cycle |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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