Forecasting the Long-Term Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemic Using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model
| Autor: | Ardian Arif Setiawan, Setyanto Tri Wahyudi, Agus Priyono Kartono, Irmansyah Sofian, Savira Vita Karimah |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Article epidemic 03 medical and health sciences Other systems of medicine 0302 clinical medicine Pandemic Statistics Medicine 030212 general & internal medicine Logistic function 0303 health sciences estimation 030306 microbiology business.industry pandemic Outbreak COVID-19 compartment Term (time) Infectious Diseases Susceptible individual business Epidemic model RZ201-999 |
| Zdroj: | Infectious Disease Reports Volume 13 Issue 3 Pages 63-684 Infectious Disease Reports, Vol 13, Iss 63, Pp 668-684 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 2036-7449 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/idr13030063 |
| Popis: | A simple model for predicting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is presented in this study. The prediction model is presented based on the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, which has been widely used to describe the epidemic time evolution of infectious diseases. The original version of the Kermack and McKendrick model is used in this study. This included the daily rates of infection spread by infected individuals when these individuals interact with a susceptible population, which is denoted by the parameter β, while the recovery rates to determine the number of recovered individuals is expressed by the parameter γ. The parameters estimation of the three-compartment SIR model is determined through using a mathematical sequential reduction process from the logistic growth model equation. As the parameters are the basic characteristics of epidemic time evolution, the model is always tested and applied to the latest actual data of confirmed COVID-19 cases. It seems that this simple model is still reliable enough to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic, not only qualitatively but also quantitatively with a high degree of correlation between actual data and prediction results. Therefore, it is possible to apply this model to predict cases of COVID-19 in several countries. In addition, the parameter characteristics of the classic SIR model can provide information on how these parameters reflect the efforts by each country to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. This is clearly seen from the changes of the parameters shown by the classic SIR model. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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