Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model
Autor: | Saraya Tavornpanich, Weerapong Thanapongtharm, Xiangming Xiao, Patrick Gasqui, François Roger, David Abrial, Myriam Charras-Garrido, Christian Ducrot, Mathilde Paul, Marius Gilbert |
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Přispěvatelé: | Unité de Recherche d'Épidémiologie Animale (UR EpiA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Animal et gestion intégrée des risques (UPR AGIRs), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Department of Livestock Development, Department of Botany and Microbiology, Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2010 |
Předmět: |
Veterinary medicine
Epidemiology animal diseases Avian influenza medicine.disease_cause L73 - Maladies des animaux Poultry 0403 veterinary science Grippe aviaire Risk Factors [SDV.BC.IC]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Cellular Biology/Cell Behavior [q-bio.CB] Influenza A virus Human Activities Socioeconomics 2. Zero hunger 0303 health sciences [SDV.BA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology Poultry farming virus diseases Agriculture 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles Risk factor (computing) Thailand 3. Good health Spatial heterogeneity Épidémiologie [SDV.MP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology poultry farming [SDV.IMM]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Immunology Original Article epidemiology [SDV.NEU]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC] Viande de volaille spatial analysis 040301 veterinary sciences Highly pathogenic Gestion du risque Évaluation du risque [SDV.BC]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Cellular Biology Biology 03 medical and health sciences medicine Animals Influenzavirus aviaire 030304 developmental biology Sirolimus Thailand -- epidemiology General Veterinary Influenza A Virus H5N1 Subtype Spatial analysis Impact sur l'environnement Outbreak L70 - Sciences et hygiène vétérinaires - Considérations générales [SDV.BBM.BM]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biochemistry Molecular Biology/Molecular biology Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 ANALYSE SPATIALE EPIDEMIOLOGIE ANIMALE VIRUS SPATIAL ANALYSIS POULTRY FARMING OISEAU THAÏLANDE ASIE AVIAN INFLUENZA EPIDEMIOLOGY Sirolimus -- analogs & derivatives [SDV.GEN.GA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Genetics/Animal genetics Relative risk Influenza in Birds Weak association [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie avian influenza Élevage de volailles Influenza in Birds -- epidemiology -- transmission -- virology |
Zdroj: | Veterinary Research Veterinary Research, BioMed Central, 2010, 41 (3), pp.28-42. ⟨10.1051/vetres/2009076⟩ Veterinary Research 3 (41), 28-42. (2010) Veterinary research, 41 (3 |
ISSN: | 0928-4249 1297-9716 |
DOI: | 10.1051/vetres/2009076⟩ |
Popis: | Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the "second wave" of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained. Journal Article Research Support, N.I.H. Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't info:eu-repo/semantics/published |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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