Impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrological components and crop water use in the Chesapeake Bay watershed
| Autor: | Zachary M. Easton, Parthkumar A. Modi, Daniel R. Fuka |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Physical geography
Watershed 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0207 environmental engineering Climate change Crop water use 02 engineering and technology Forcing (mathematics) Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences MACA Evapotranspiration Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Precipitation Water cycle 020701 environmental engineering 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology QE1-996.5 Coupled model intercomparison project Geology GB3-5030 Crop coefficient Global climate models Noah-MP Environmental science |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 35, Iss, Pp 100830-(2021) |
| Popis: | This study assessed the impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrological components and Crop Water Use (CWU) over the Chesapeake Bay watershed using a combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and a land surface model. To better understand the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle, long-term simulations of multiple earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP Phase 5) are statistically downscaled and bias-corrected using Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) scheme for use as model forcing. Precipitation indices from the twenty MACA-based GCMs are used to identify six best performing models. A mesoscale approach is developed, where CWU is estimated by accounting for the impacts of changing climate conditions and rising CO2 levels. Daily grid-based crop coefficients are derived from evapotranspiration data. The findings indicate a significant annual increase in precipitation (10 %) and temperature (+4.5 K) for the RCP 8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21st century. A significant reduction (13 % and 17 % respectively) in CWU is estimated for corn and soybeans, resulting from increased total precipitation and rising CO2 levels suppressing evapotranspiration. Our results indicate that even in a warmer regime, crop water use decreased due to rising CO2 concentrations due to climate change. National Science Foundation (NSF)National Science Foundation (NSF) [CBET-1360280] Published version This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) , Water, Sustainability, and Climate Program (grant number CBET-1360280) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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